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Week Fourteen…

Matty Ice almost made me look bad Thursday Night with those 3 picks in 4 pass attempts in the middle of the game but thankfully he righted the ship enough by the end.  On to the rest:

Minnesota (-2.5) at Carolina

It actually doesn’t even make sense to me that I believe in the Panthers more than the Vikings.  The teams are a combined 18-6, which doesn’t make sense in and of itself.  I keep coming back to one thing though:  Case Keenum.  It seems the Vikes are looking for that crack to bench him for a now apparently healthy Teddy Bridgewater.  Is this the game?

Carolina 21, Minnesota 20.

Chicago at Cincinnati (-6.5)

On the flip side, I don’t believe in either of these teams.  Both kind of playing out the string…ok, technically the Bengals are still alive, but really…anyway, Cincy should have beaten the Steelers this past Monday Night, but choked away that one.  They’ve got enough decent players still…even if the coach is atrocious.  They are at home.  And…the Bears are awful.  I don’t feel that comfortable here, but…

Cincinnati 23, Chicago 14.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Cleveland 

Brett Hundley only has to play/win one more game before Aaron Rodgers returns.  Packers fans are rejoicing.  And thankfully, the game is against the Browns.  Can he do it?  He’d better.

Green Bay 24, Cleveland 13.

San Francisco at Houston (-2.5) 

Jimmy Football didn’t get the Niners into the end zone against the lowly Bears last week.  But they still won.  Houston still has some weapons despite all the injuries and they are at home.  Just a hunch on this one.

Houston 17, San Francisco 16.

Dallas (-4.5) at New York Giants

Dallas has been middling, but did they get back on track with their pasting of the ‘Skins last week?  And yes we all know the G-Men are in turmoil.  Canned their GM and coach (finally) this past week.  They are going back to Eli after one game of the Geno Smith Experiment.  Some people think this all may provide a kick in the pants and boost the Giants to victory at home on Sunday.  Not me.

Dallas 31, New York Giants 10.

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

I’m betting Matthew Stafford will play, but will it matter?  And how well will he play anyway?  Apparently, the Lions have other key injuries as well.  And Jimmy Caldwell is still their coach.  Although Dirk Koetter is no prize either.  Neither team excites me.  But the Bucs are 3-2 at home.  Good enough.

Tampa Bay 24, Detroit 21.

Oakland at Kansas City (-3.5) 

Oakland shocked KC earlier this year on a Thursday Night and the Chiefs are 1-4 since.  The Raiders are only 3-2 since, with the wins being underwhelming close ones against the Dolphins, Broncos and Giants.  So it’s not like the Raiders were spurred on by that victory against the Chiefs.  And the Chiefs demise has most assuredly more to do with other things than that particular loss.  So, all things being equal, you would expect KC to take this matchup at home, no?  No Marcus Peters won’t help.  And that loss to the Jets was absolutely putrid.  So I am not counting on it.

Oakland 38, Kansas City 34.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-3.5) 

The word is the immortal Nathan Peterman will get the start against the Colts.  5 interceptions in a half in your NFL debut is hard to get over.  Though Nate didn’t look so bad in garbage time against the Pats last Sunday.  That all being said, Sean McDermott or Alex Van Pelt could likely QB this team past the Colts this weekend.

Buffalo 20, Indianapolis 7.

New York Jets (-0.5) at Denver

I’ve said it before and will say it again:  I have to take one of these teams??  It would appear that the Broncos still have plenty of talent on paper.  But no QB.  On top of that, it would also appear that the Broncs have quit on their coach and season.  On the other hand, the J-E-T-S are still playing hard.  I know the Chiefs are reeling, but it was a nice win against them last week…especially after getting down 14-0 right out of the gate.  There were people out there that thought this Jets team would go 0-16 this year.  If they win this one they will be 6-7.  It pains me, but either way they deserve some credit.

New York Jets 27, Denver 13

Tennessee (-2.5) at Arizona

I’m not sold on this 8-4 Titans team.  But the 5-7 Cards ain’t so hot themselves.  I have nothing else to add here.

Tennessee 23, Arizona 17.  

Washington at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) 

If the Chargers had a decent kicker, they’d be at least 8-4.  By most accounts, they are now surprisingly viewed as the favorites in the AFC West.  How did that happen?  Not sure.  But the ‘Skins are clearly heading in the opposite direction, losing 3 of 4 and 5 of 7.

Los Angeles Chargers 27, Washington 20.

Seattle at Jacksonville (-3.5)

The Jags’ defense has given up only 178 points this year.  No one else is under 200.  Every time I looked around at the last Seahawk game against the Eagles, Russell Wilson was running for his life because the ‘Hawk O-Line is a sieve.  So Jags in this one, right?  Nope.  One, Jax is not ready for that next step now, I don’t care if people say they are…and if they are at home in this one.  Two?  Wilson can actually run for his life, so never discount that.

Seattle 24, Jacksonville 14.  

Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) 

Another tough road tilt for the Eagles, after their loss last week at Seattle.  Though the Rams have unquestionably had a great year, I don’t believe they are on the same level as the Seahawks.  Methinks Philly rebounds here.  And though both defenses are pretty capable, this one smells like a shootout.

Philadelphia 38, Los Angeles Rams 31.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

“AFC North Football”, as Big Ben likes to call it.  Maybe players on both teams will try to injure each other in this one too.  The Steelers won big in Baltimore earlier this year, but that was way back in Week 4.  The Ravens have been playing better and the Steelers play down to their competition.  I’m sure the NFL will want both Pittsburgh and New England to both be 11-2 for next week’s matchup, so that leads me to believe Pitt will win a close one in the end.

Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17.

New England (-11.5) at Miami

The Pats always seem to struggle in Miami.  No Gronk.  Many other injuries as well.  Also some illness going through the locker room it appears, as a few players are on the injury report all of a sudden because of it.  Blah blah blah…despite the Dolphins being a horrible football team, this spread seems a little high.  Plus, you can’t dismiss the fact that a few Miami players love taking cheap shots.  Like I said above though, no way the Pats or Steelers will not have the same record for their tilt next week.  Though the possibility does exist they both lose and they will still be in the same position anyway…

New England 30, Miami 24.

Week (against the spread):  1-0

Week (straight up):  1-0

Season (against the spread):  103-90

Season (straight up):  129-64


Not There Yet…and Week Five Picks…

…Thursday Night Football was once again ugly this week.  The New England Patriots did hold off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, 19-14.  But it was kind of a sloppy game.  A thousand penalties, including several real stupid ones by the Patriots.  Jameis Winston missing wide open receivers…actually Tom Brady did too.  The Patriots offensive line made the Tampa pass rush look like they still had Warren Sapp in his prime.  One sack all year, they had three the other night.  But it felt like 20, they way they were hitting Brady.  I am not sure how the Bucs officially got only 6 hits credited to the stat sheet.  Fumbles.  Dropped passes.  Dropped interceptions.  And lastly, but certainly not least, a virtuoso performance by Tampa kicker Nick Folk.  I guess once you’ve played for the Jets, that stink never really goes away.  May explain why David Harris has only played a handful of snaps for the Pats this year, despite their linebackers being putrid.  But I digress…

If you are a Patriot fan, you should be happy they got the win.  Short week, on the road, against what is supposed to be a good team, defense in disarray and all that.  I am happy for that.  But…if you are a Patriot fan, you cannot say that all the problems from the first 4 games have vanished.

The defense played better, no doubt.  But it appears they simplified it a little bit, though I didn’t study any game tape, I must admit.  And they almost coughed it up late.  Maybe they relaxed a bit at the end, who knows?  But they could have very well lost the game on the last drive.

The offensive line…I don’t even know what to say.  The same five guys are back from last year.  And everyone’s favorite assistant coach, Dante Scarnecchia, is still here.  So what happened?  I really don’t know.  But these guys are going to get Brady killed.  And maybe you can lay a little blame on Tom himself for holding on to the ball too long.  Or the wide receivers for not getting open.  Or on the absence of Julian Edelman, and in this game, Rob Gronkowski, who are Brady’s favorite security blankets.  Or on Josh McDaniels and the coaching staff, because they seemingly have run more downfield routes this year…partly due to the absence of Edelman, but also due to the arrival of Brandin Cooks.  Or TE Dwayne Allen, who apparently sucks at both blocking and receiving.  But you’ve all heard the stat, Brady has been sacked more times in five games already than in the 12 games he played last regular season.  Not good.

Plenty of work still to be done.  And I do think the Patriots will do it.  But it’s going to take some more time.  In any event, 3-2 is better than 2-3.  With the Jets up next.  Beautiful!

Now for the rest of Week Five:

Tennessee (-2.5) at Miami

Miami has scored 25 points in 3 games.  Tennessee is probably starting Matt Cassel.  I hate to pick the Dolphins again and lose, but I feel like I have no choice here.

Miami 20, Tennessee 13.

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-1.5) 

A lot of people have some interest in this game…ummmm…ok, no they don’t.  Indy is at home, is favored and has won one game this year.  But I’m looking for the winless 49ers to finally break through after a three close losses in a row.  Why?  I don’t have any idea.

San Francisco 21, Indianapolis 17.

Carolina at Detroit (-3.5)

Maybe I am in the minority, but I really cannot jump on the Lions bandwagon.  Jimmy Caldwell, for one.  Matthew Stafford for two.  Maybe I should…and will…give these guys some credit some day.  Just not yet.  Ok yes, wait.  This week I will.  Carolina is coming off a big road win in Foxborough.  That means they will probably not show up in Detroit.  I may be going against my better judgement here.  But I really don’t know about this one.

Detroit 24, Carolina 20.

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3.5)

Buffalo has been better than they should be.  Cincinnati has been worse than they should be.  Things have a way of evening out over time.  Especially when those things concern two mediocre teams.

Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 20.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5)

Speaking of two mediocre teams, or “SHOULD” be mediocre teams.  Since that what they should be, though they both remain winless.  A tie perhaps?  Doubtful.  This is another toss of a coin.  When in doubt, take the points.  But I will say that even though both offenses have also sucked, a shootout here would not shock me.

New York Giants 31, Los Angeles Chargers 28.

Arizona at Philadelphia (-6.5) 

Arizona is fairly lucky to be 2-2.  They beat both the hapless Colts and 49ers by three in overtime.  And got smoked in their other two games against Detroit and Dallas.  It’s an every other week thing too.  This happens to be the week of the smokeshow.

Philadelphia 34, Arizona 17.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-8.5) 

Speaking of smokeshows.  Look for Antonio Brown to be targeted early and often.  Despite all that talk about how he needs to grow up and stop the tantrums and all that.  The bottom line is that Big Ben WILL want to make him happy.  So he will get him the ball and shut him up.

Pittsburgh 38, Jacksonville 17.

New York Jets at Cleveland (-1.5)

Yikes!  Niners/Colts and Jets/Browns on the same Sunday??  Oh boy.

Cleveland 17, New York Jets 14.

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

The Rams may well be for real.  But the Seahawks are not done.

Seattle 27, Los Angeles Rams 24.

Baltimore at Oakland (-3.5)

The Ravens have been abysmal the last two weeks.  But the Raiders are likely starting EJ Manuel.  ‘Nuff said.

Baltimore 24, Oakland 17.  

Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)

I’m not feeling the Cowboys this year.  Still should be a pretty good squad.  But 13-3?  Nah.  Well, they would have to go 11-1 from here, so I suppose that is pretty obvious.  The Packers didn’t dominate out of the gates this year either.  Even though the game is in Dallas, I’m feeling the Pack here…with of course no real statistical evidence for me to back it up with.

Green Bay 34, Dallas 27.

Kansas City (-1.5) at Houston

Houston isn’t going to put 57 up on the Chiefs this week.  But the offense has found some rhythm for sure.  KC isn’t going to go undefeated.  They had a battle with Washington at home last week and managed to outlast the Redskins.  This game kind of looks like where they have a little bump in the road…on the road.

Houston 24, Kansas City 23.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Chicago 

Mitchell Trubisky may be better than Mike Glennon.  But that’s not saying much.  Sure, they’ve had a week and a half to get him ready for this game.  Well, to start this game.  They’ve had months to get him ready.  Anyway, throwing him in on a Monday Night Football game against a divisional opponent with a pretty good defense?  Not so sure about that.  Whether or not Sam Bradford comes back or if it is Case Keenum again under center for the Vikes.

Minnesota 24, Chicago 10.

Week (against the spread):  1-0

Week (straight up):  1-0

Season (against the spread): 30-34

Season (straight up): 40-24

Much better…

…we’re talking about both the New England Patriots’ performance last Sunday against New Orleans, as well as the Blowhard’s Week Two pick performance (did anyone notice we predicted the exact score & winner of the KC/Philly game?  No?  Not surprised…but it happened!).

Now, we don’t necessarily have to go back and entirely analyze the Pats game from four days ago.  But it was good to see the team get back to doing things that we know they are capable of doing.

However, I wouldn’t say all their problems are solved.  And that’s ok, because it is still September.  Plenty of time still to figure things out.  But it was disappointing to see the offense kind of sputter a bit in the second half against a historically bad Saints defense.  That’s one that stands out to me.  They should have put up 50 against that putrid outfit.

Of course, the injuries didn’t help.  Looked like Rex Burkhead was going to be a big part of the game plan.  He left early.  Phillip Dorsett was getting himself involved, then he left a little later.  No need to even talk about Gronk…we know he is an injury waiting to happen.  Every team has injuries and we will see what happens with these guys…including Danny Amendola and Dont’a Hightower, who of course did not play.  As well as Eric Rowe, who also left the game early.  But they seem to be hitting the Pats early this year.

More importantly, what is up with the playing time of Malcolm Butler and Alan Branch?  Is Butler already starting to be “phased out”, seeing that he won’t be here next year?  Is Branch causing problems somehow, as he has been wont to do in the past with other teams?  Curious dip in PT for these two.  And why did the team even sign David Harris when he has only played three snaps in the first two games…and the linebacking corps is suspect to begin with?

And where is Brandin Cooks?  The team dressed only 3 wide receivers and Dorsett eventually went down.  Plus, Burkhead apparently was going to play some receiver and he went down early.  And Cooks only had 2 catches (4 targets).  Seemed to me this was a game to get him involved more.

I won’t even start on Stephen Gostkowski.  3-3 on chip shot field goals, yes, but were any of them straight?  Another missed PAT and I’m not sure the other three made PAT’s were straight either.  And please recall that the game was played indoors.

Perhaps that is a little nitpicking for the second week of the season.  But they are all relevant talking points.  In any event, we are happy with the win, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.

As for Week Three, here’s where we begin:

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco

Another banner Thursday night game.  This could possibly be a worse matchup than Texans/Bengals last Thursday night.  Sure, the Rams have shown improvement from last year in their first two games of this season, but is anyone buying into them yet?  Sure, the Niners played the Seahawks close last week, but they have scored TWELVE points thus far this season.  Brian Hoyer is locking down that quarterbacking job at this point, I suppose that explains some things.

It’s a divisional battle, so maybe that’s something to grasp hold onto.  The color rush thing is kind of stupid, but if you like it then you can cling to that too.  But this sure smells like another Thursday night stinker.  Will I watch it though?  You bet!!

Los Angeles Rams 17, San Francisco 9.

Week (against the spread):  10-6

Week (straight up):  13-3

Season (against the spread):  16-15

Season (straight up): 22-9

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