…In Bill We Trust? Here we go again…
Yeah, I know it has been a week since the New England Patriot’s draft has concluded. Has it taken me this long to process the results? Nope. It would appear I feel the same way as most of you. Has it taken me this long because I was waiting to see who the Pats would bring on as undrafted free agents? A little bit, but not really. I don’t believe they have still announced who they are. But I see some lists…we will get to them later.
Since I wrote some pre-draft stuff, I feel the need to comment on what actually transpired. Though I think we may all know how this will go. Since what transpired obviously did not match up with what I kind of hoped they would do.
None of us should be surprised at how many trades Bill Belichick made during the draft. This should be the least surprising occurrence of the three days. The conspiracy theory of Bill making a ton of trades involving the pick received in the Jimmy Garoppolo trade, so that it would be hard to track what return they actually received? I can buy into that…a little bit anyway. I wouldn’t rule that scenario completely out. Was it the main focus? I don’t believe so. But don’t tell me Bill didn’t have something like that in mind.
The most surprising thing to me was that Bill did not auction off the #31 pick overall to the highest bidder. Teams are ALWAYS looking to move back into the first round and can offer enticing packages to get back into the end of it. Especially because the Pats already had used a pick at #23. Especially nowadays that the second round starts a day later, for whatever reason. Possibly because the teams get an extra year of team control for a first-round pick. In any event, Bill usually loves these sort of deals, where he could have picked up like 2 or 3 more picks for that one.
To top off my surprise, after not trading the pick, they selected a running back with it. Holy Jesus…a f’n RUNNING BACK!! This RB part has been talked about ad nauseam this week locally…as well it should be. Count me among the masses of the confused.
This offense does not need to spend major assets on the running back position. It just doesn’t. Think of all the guys they have picked up over the years for next to nothing. You know the names: LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, Antowain Smith, Sammy Morris, Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead for starters and also Steven Jackson and Fred Taylor…ok, forget the last two. Then using no more than mid-round picks on guys like James White, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and the like. And let’s not forget the last time that the Pats used a first round pick on a runner…the immortal Laurence Maroney! How’d that work out?
Sigh…Sony Michel may be a good running back. You just didn’t need to use that pick on him. I did watch most of the NCAA football “Final Four” last year. And I will admit, Michel looked pretty damn good. But I honestly think that the team could have gotten away with the combination of White, Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee and Jeremy Hill this coming season. And perhaps another veteran plucked off the wire later in the year, or a kid from the practice squad.
I would have bet my house that Bill would have traded that pick down for more picks. I would have bet my neighborhood that he wouldn’t have selected a running back with that pick once he kept it. Glad I didn’t do either.
Can’t say I am enamored with the selection at #23 either. Isaiah Wynn may very well be a good player too. But although he played tackle in college and the Patriots announced him as such, most of the “experts” think he will be a guard in the pros. Not to mention they already have 35 offensive linemen on the roster. Including grabbing the humongous Trent Brown from the Niners seemingly on the cheap. What are they going to do with all of these guys? Yeah, half of them are fringe players. But looking at the list, they won’t be able to even keep all of the half-decent ones.
Then in the second round…a “slot corner” in Duke Dawson. Maybe he is a good player too. But…
I was clear that I wanted defense, defense, defense and more defense…just like everyone else. I would have accepted taking a quarterback high if the Patriots had truly identified “the future”. The Pats had 5 of the first 95 picks. Seemed like a good chance to get some good defensive talent in tow. Instead, they only took three guys…the offensive lineman that may not have a set position, the running back that seems extraneous and a backup corner.
Their next pick was in the fifth round, Ja’whaun Bentley. A linebacker!! But one whose speed may not match up in the pros. Oops. Don’t we already have Elandon Roberts? Seems like the same guy. Ummmmm…speed at linebacker is kind of one big thing the team needs. Like…a BIG thing.
Five more picks in the sixth and seventh round…not sure we even need to talk about them. Mel Kiper loves the 6th round receiver/punt returner…yay. Just cuz Julian Edelman worked out in the 7th round, doesn’t mean this guy will. LB, QB, TE, DB the other picks…yaaaaaawn.
You may ask, “Well, what do the undrafted free agent pickups look like? A handful always seem to make the team, right?” Again, no signings appear to have been announced. But I’ve seen one list of 10 dudes. We already know that I have no idea who these lower rated guys are. But my only real comment is that list includes not one, but TWO punters. And still no kickers. As a result, I can’t get all fired up about any of these guys.
So there you go. I’m in the same boat as the masses. Not excited at the draft haul. But yet again, we are all probably wrong. Everything always seems to work out, no matter how bad it looks. There will be more moves. There is no way the team can keep all of their guys at various positions. Maybe they can get draft picks for some of the guys they choose to move on from. Maybe there will be bigger deals on the horizon. Of course no one really ever knows what Bill is thinking.
We are in a period of tremendous future uncertainty here folks. We all know the end is near for Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and it certainly seems like Rob Gronkowski. Robert Kraft will most certainly pass the team along to his son Jonathan soon. But dig a little deeper. Of the 84 roster players listed on Spotrac.com, only 13 of them are signed in 2020 and beyond. Take away the 9 draftees, that is 13 of 75 that are locked up long-term. Seems light. Sure, there could be extensions coming…especially perhaps for guys like Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton, who just had their fifth-year options from their rookie contracts declined, making them unrestricted free agents after this year.
There is no question that this team will be markedly different over the next couple of years. HOW different is what scares me…
…ok, so on to the draft chatter.
Let’s be honest, none of us really know how any of these college kids are going to perform in the professional ranks. Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Mike Mayock and all those other yahoos may THINK they know. But they don’t know either.
So I’m not going to pretend that I know. I for damn sure don’t. I really don’t even follow college ball too much anyway. I do take joy in Boston College losing whenever I can. But other than maybe a final score, I don’t pay much attention to their actual games. Or certainly their players. What I do know is where the New England Patriots have needs. And we can focus more on that in this space.
I’m not going to do a roster breakdown at this point here either. God knows we do enough of that here already and don’t need another one on top of those.
So anyway, the Patriots have 2 picks in the first, second and sixth rounds and single picks in the third and seventh round.
What do they need? Welp, a little bit of everything, I guess you could say.
What would I do? Glad you asked!
I’d say the top need is linebacker. Someone that can cover, someone who can rush the passer, basically just anyone that is GOOD. Dont’a Hightower is the only player listed at linebacker that really seems to have any talent at all and we know he gets hurt all the time. The team will tell you that Kyle Van Noy is a good player and that other players such as Elandon Roberts are on the rise. But us Patriots fans know better than that.
They should honestly use a bunch of their picks in this draft on linebacker/pass rusher types. Adrian Clayborn is someone who shouldn’t hurt. And the return of Derek Rivers should help as well. But loading up here in this draft, even in the lower rounds, should definitely be explored.
The defense actually should essentially be the entire focus of this years’ draft. The team lost a few key guys on offense in Brandin Cooks, Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola and Nate Solder. But the offense will be just fine. The presumed returns from injury of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell should offset the loss of Cooks and Amendola. And I love the Jordan Matthews signing. Running backs are fungible in New England, as I have said. I hope Rex Burkhead can stay healthy because I said all of last year I wanted to see more of him. Jeremy Hill may pan out here as well.
Left tackle? People are panicking over the loss of Solder. I am not one of them. He is about as average as you can get. He did a decent job for several years there, but no way was I giving him a huge contract to stay. Antonio Garcia was drafted in the third round last year to basically replace Nate this year. The blood clot messed up that plan. That being said, if he is the real deal and needs this year to get his strength back and to be eased back in, can’t they just stopgap here for a year to get by? I think they can. LaAdrian Waddle is no superstar. But I am thinking between him, Cole Croston, Andrew Jelks, Matt Tobin, a mid-round draft pick this year and perhaps Garcia himself as the year rolls on, they can piece it together at left tackle. Add in supposed “offensive line whisperer”, coach Dante Scarnecchia, I am not as worried here as most people.
Tight end? A lot of “experts” and fans are advocating going after another “franchise” tight end, because no one knows what Gronk is going to do, now apparently year to year. And he is getting older. And he is injury-prone. And all that. That’s easier said than done of course. How many franchise-altering TE’s are available out there similar to Gronk? Or Aaron Herna…oops, nevermind. But you get the point. Maybe that guy is already here in former 2nd round pick Troy Niklas. Ok, maybe not, but he was certainly worth the flyer. In any event, I’m not going crazy trying to find the next Gronk. That seems like an impossible undertaking to me.
Defensive Backs? Wouldn’t hurt to take a corner. Unless you think Cyrus Jones is going to make a difference. I would say most of us don’t though. I think between Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Eric Rowe and Jonathan Jones, you have a solid base. But there are still plenty of question marks. At safety, I believe they also have a good base in Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. I know, the Super Bowl doesn’t inspire confidence in any of these guys. But these players should be ok. I’ve heard whispers that some dude named Ryan Lewis, a corner who spent all year on the practice squad, has some promise. But who the hell knows about that? Maybe add a decent prospect or two in the draft. And leaving Jordan Richards off the team in September would go a long way as well.
It’s also time to bring in some competition for placekicker Stephen Gostkowski. But you don’t need to do that during the draft. Or do you?
As I said above, I would use most of the picks on the defensive side of the ball. There is one wild card though…and it’s a big one. That would be the proverbial “quarterback of the future”.
All the draftniks say this is the deepest quarterback draft in some time. If you say so. Again, who really knows? Does anyone really think all these top 3-4 guys are franchise guys? Baker Mayfield was just a mid-round guy a few months ago…perhaps comparable to colossal bust Johnny Manziel. Now there are rumors he will go #1 overall? Yeah…
So Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk, blah, blah, blah…can any of them even play in the NFL? No one knows.
That all being said, if the Patriots have done their research, analysis and all that and they themselves have determined who that “next franchise guy” is going to be, my personal opinion is that they should do whatever it takes to get him.
They had that guy in Jimmy G. QB is obviously the most important position on the field. Brady will be 41 before next season starts. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times: There is just no track record for 40-plus-year-old starting NFL quarterbacks. Not a good one anyway. Yes, Brady is a legend. Yes, he was MVP last year. Yes, he threw for over 500 yards in the Super Bowl last year. Yes, defenses cannot breathe on a QB these days, so the QB lifespan is indeed longer than ever. Don’t give me the Guerrero stuff, but Brady is admittedly a different animal.
But…he could also fall off a cliff. Like a lot of them do. And then you are left with Brian Hoyer.
Who wants that?
If they have identified their quarterback of the future, go get him.
Those other gaps can be filled in other ways. It’s a smart enough organization, I am not worried about that.
So in summary, what will they do? Well, it’s doubtful they will take all 8 picks in the end, as we know Belichick likes to make deals. They could have 5 or they could end up with 11. If they take the 8 as it stands, I’d do 1 QB, 4 defensive front seven players, 1 corner, 1 OL and 1 TE. Maybe 2 OL instead of the TE.
And zero special teamers. Please.
…and perhaps a few early offseason notes. I mean, the New England Patriots’ Super Bowl loss has been analyzed a gazillion times over the last week. How much more is there to say? Well, I had to write something to throw out my final pick record, so I’ll throw a few thoughts out there in no particular order:
*Josh McDaniels is the most recent story, so maybe we should cover that first. That was kind of a slimy thing he did to the Colts. But hey, the contract wasn’t signed, right? He changed his mind, for whatever reason. Sure, he gave the Colts every indication he was taking the job. Then, of course, didn’t. Maybe that’s an indictment on how the NFL handles these situations? If Josh signs that deal in the wild card week, then there is no backtracking, correct? But the NFL doesn’t allow that.
Most people feel bad for the assistants that signed contracts with the Colts. And yeah, there is some validity to that too. But again, why did they sign their contracts and leave their current jobs when Josh hadn’t actually signed his yet? Shouldn’t the head coach be sealed up in blood before anyone else does anything? Sure, the assistants planned to go with him for probably several months. And then officially for several weeks, once Josh told them he was taking the Indy job. But again, nothing was signed. I’ve heard a lot this week about “well, the assistants had been planning to go with McDaniels for up to a year when Josh got a head coaching gig”. Yeah, that may be true. But what if Josh never got a head coaching opportunity this offseason? The assistants were going to quit their jobs anyway like a year ago, even they didn’t know when McDaniels was going to be offered a head coaching position (more importantly, TAKE, a head coaching position)? I don’t know. Assistants often get screwed. And maybe I am taking a hard line here. But I am not feeling as bad as most about their “plight”.
One last thing, the “family” reason for why McDaniels stayed is sweet and all. But it’s also nonsense. Sure, stability for coaches and their families is not something that happens often in the league. But Josh didn’t stay for that reason. The Krafts made him the heir apparent to Bill Belichick. Period. Maybe nothing is signed. But you honestly cannot tell me that McDaniels sullied his reputation around the league and kind of torpedoed his head coaching prospects, at least for the immediate future, without receiving SOME kind of promise in the process. No way he stays otherwise.
*You know what else I have determined is also nonsense? The fact that everyone thinks that if Malcolm Butler plays in the Super Bowl, the Patriots automatically win. Now, don’t get me wrong. Having Butler on the sideline sure didn’t help. And for a player that played 98% of the snaps all season to all of a sudden be benched in the most important game of the year is certainly questionable. But would one player have had made the difference?
Reports came out this week that Matt Patricia and probably Belichick had the players often in the wrong positions all game. They didn’t match up to Eagle packages the best way. They had plays where Marquis Flowers was rushing the passer and their best pass rusher, Trey Flowers, was going into coverage. They left Nick Foles uncovered on his touchdown catch. They had dime defense in for obvious running downs. Etc., etc., etc.
We all know that Johnson Bademosi and Jordan Richards are special teams players at best and in Richards’ case, maybe not even a real NFL player. So Butler comes in. But then Eric Rowe is still out there. And he was terrible too. Maybe Bademosi and Richards still get snaps. And maybe Butler does ok, but the other three still get torched. Devin McCourty was awful too. And Butler has not been great overall this year either. EVERYONE on the defense, with the possible exception of Stephon Gilmore, was brutal in the Super Bowl. No pass D, no run D, no nothing. The coaches did not help things. James Harrison played something like 93% of the snaps. Sure, he was “fresh” from not playing much of the season. But you are really going to depend on him as well?
I think we all want to hear why Butler was benched. But with the entire defense being historically bad, and the coaching also matching that, to suggest that having his presence merely in the lineup would have changed things I actually think is a little bit of a leap.
I will also admit that I told someone during the game that “I would play a dead Malcolm Butler over a fully operational Jordan Richards” though. So there’s that…
*Most New England fans expected Doug Pederson to wet his pants at some point in the game and for the Pats even to win somewhat comfortably. I know I did. But that man deserves a ton of credit for the game he called. He wasn’t afraid, that was a big start. He exploited matchups. Went for it on 4th downs. All that. He was probably the real MVP and not Foles. Hell of a call on the 4th down TD to Foles down by the goal line. The Pats had no idea what was going on for that play. Well, for a lot of plays actually. But that one in particular.
*The Super Bowl loss makes me more angry that Brady did his whole “Tom vs. Time” Facebook thing and that Bill did his “The Two Bills” 30 for 3o. It probably doesn’t matter either way. But I feel like they have never done stuff like that in the past and now here they are doing it the week of the Super Bowl. Tom obviously had a choice on when to schedule his stuff and I am sure Bill did too. It just seems odd that this is the year they decide to do that kind of stuff. Just felt like to me that these guys kind of thought the game was in the bag. Maybe not, but that’s what I’m feeling.
*Speaking of one play on defense, by Butler or anyone else, maybe making a difference, how about the fumble by Brady with just over two minutes left? THAT’S the one I cannot get over. Didn’t we all think that when they got the ball back at that point that Brady would march them downfield and score pretty easily? Sure, Brady got swallowed up pretty quickly. And sure, it’s hard to nitpick an offense that had over 600 yards. But that was obviously a killer.
*On the fumble, it’s also hard to blame an offensive line that played over its head all day. But that was clearly a bad spot for a glitch.
*As for the people on the offensive line, Nate Solder has had a decent, if unspectacular career. Hard to criticize him too much also, since he and his family have gone through some significant battles off the field. But if he’s not retiring as some people think, I’m not resigning him anywhere near the 10-11 mil or whatever he made this year. As average as LaAdrian Waddle and Cam Fleming may be, I’d consider resigning them for short money, hope 2017 third round pick Antonio Garcia can contribute something and then add another vet or two to compete at lesser money. I’m spending every available penny to revamp that defense next year if I’m the Patriots.
*One offensive free agent I would spend a little extra to bring back, however, is Danny Amendola. Even if he is again the fifth receiver on paper next year behind Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. As long as Brady is here, I want Danny here. The guy is just money. He won’t take yet another pay cut to stay after his huge offseason, will he? He’s been taking cuts for years, does he finally go the other way? Not sure what the market will be for him, or what he wants to do, but I’m keeping him here. I’m good with these 5. Not sure I care much about Kenny Britt or Philip Dorsett.
*While we are on offensive free agents, I have loved what Dion Lewis has brought to the team, but if he’s looking to cash in, we’ll see ya later. I don’t blame him because of how his career has gone with injuries and being cut and all that. I’m just not spending a lot of dough on running backs. I’d give Gillislee another shot next year since he is signed. I’d also see if Rex Burkhead would come back at similar money as this year…or less. He missed some time this season but looked pretty good when he was out there. I’d like to see more. In fact, I would have liked to have seen more of him in the Super Bowl, especially after Cooks got knocked out. Would have played him at receiver instead of Dorsett for that matter.
*It’s too bad Alan Branch retired this year and didn’t tell anyone. Could have used the 2016 Branch in the playoffs. Much more so than Ricky Jean Francois.
*I hope Brady isn’t blaming Amendola for overthrowing him on his pass route. Similar how everyone blamed Wes Welker in 2012 for dropping Brady’s wide open pass, including probably Brady himself and as we all know, Brady’s wife Gisele. Both throws could have been better. But both catches should have absolutely been made. Maybe Gisele understands now.
*Man I hope Jimmy G is the real deal for the sake of the 49ers. He’s pocketing like 43 million next year alone from what I understand. Just…wow…thank God Bill got that second round pick for him…ugh…
*Cooks trying to jump over the defender on the goal line when he could have beaten the guy to the outside was pure stupidity. Yes, that play could have worked. But I still think it was a dumb play call. Brady needs to throw it there, simple as that.
*Then the botched field goal the play after. Not Stephen Gostkowski’s fault in that case. Though being that short an attempt, the feeling here is he still should have made it. He got off a decent attempt actually. BUT, the missed extra point was brutal. Gostkowski had a pretty good year. But it’s time to at the very least bring in some competition for him next year.
*Guess the Eagles’ backup left tackle wasn’t so bad, eh? I suppose when you have a 39-year-old James Harrison playing over 90% of the snaps, maybe that’s a big part of the problem. But where also was Trey Flowers? Oh, sometimes he was in coverage. Nevermind…
*Not sure anyone is talking enough about how that stupidity with the kickoff return on the very last drive cost the Pats some pretty good field position. Maybe they are a lot closer on that last play and don’t have to fire up a Hail Mary?
*The strategy of deferring when winning the coin toss is something that has worked well for the Pats over the years. But in some games, doesn’t it make sense to take the ball, score on the first drive and make the other team actually play from behind instead of it always being you? Seems like this would have been a good time to do that, playing against a backup QB and a lot of players that hadn’t been on this stage before. Never know, the Eagles could have folded under the pressure early. Instead, the early lead for them in this game may have given them some confidence. Not to mention that the Pats allowed the Eagles to march downfield pretty easily right before the half. There goes that plan…
I guess that is enough. And we shouldn’t feel too bad I guess. 5-3 in Super Bowls in the 2000’s should make most people happy. Maybe it should be 6-2. Maybe it should be 2-6. The Pats probably should have lost to the Rams, Seahawks, and Falcons. Maybe they should have beaten the Eagles and won both Giants games. Who knows? Sometimes these things even themselves out over time.
Guess I am just trying to keep things in perspective…trying…
Week (against the spread): 1-0
Week (straight up): 0-1
Season (against the spread): 143-124 (53.6%…I can live with that!)
Season (straight up): 180-87 (67.4%)