Patriots Post Draft Roster Projection…Conclusion…

Nothing really more to say here, so…the rest:

Defense:

DE (2):

Locks:  John Simon, Chase Winovich

In:  None

Out:  Derek Rivers, Deatrich Wise, Nick Thurman, Tashawn Bower, Nick Coe, Trevor Hill

Comments:  Rivers is another guy on the fringe.  I feel like he gets one more shot, especially with only two guys in this particular category.  Then again, some of the linebackers will play this role, so it’s not really two.  Simon is decent but is probably not getting any better.  That’s why we are hoping that Chase takes another step forward this season.  And not just cuz we want to see his hair.  I think time has run out on Wise, however.  But somehow, he always seems to stick when his roster spot seems in jeopardy.  So we cannot even rule him completely out at this point.

DT (4):

Locks:  Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Beau Allen

In:  Byron Cowart

Out:  Bill Murray, Courtney Wallace Jr.

Comments:  Seems like not drafting a defensive tackle almost gives Cowart the last spot here.  Let’s just hope Allen is good.  The local press loves Guy and Butler has his moments.  But it’s not that impressive of a group, let’s be real.

LB (6):

Locks:  Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Anfernee Jennings, Josh Uche

In:  Shilique Calhoun, Brandon Copeland

Out:  Terez Hall, Cassh Maluia, Kyahva Tezino, De’Jon Harris

Comments:  Big year for Bentley as we noted in the last piece.  And we believe that Uche and Jennings will see plenty of action out of the gate.  It would be nice if Hightower continues playing most of the games.  Always seemingly banged up, Dont’a has actually played 15 of the 16 games in the last two seasons.  You’d think he’d want to be out there in a contract year, so hopefully the trend continues.  It’d better.  This group is full of a whole lot of unknowns and perhaps special team types like Calhoun.  And Copeland came from the Jets, so how good can he be?

CB (5):

Locks:  Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Jason McCourty, Joejuan Williams

In:  None

Out:  D’Angelo Ross, Lenzy Pipkins, Miles Bryant

Comments:  Really about as cut and dried as you can get.  No questions here.  People are floating Gilmore’s name as a potential trade candidate, but I don’t see it.  He does make a ton of dough and as a result of him being the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year last season, he probably wants more.  After this season I could see the Pats moving on from him in some fashion.  But if they want to win games this year, the secondary is going to have to be a big part of the game plan.  And ditching Gilmore won’t help that.

S (5):

Locks:  Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Kyle Duggar

In:  Adrian Phillips, Terrance Brooks

Out:  Adarius Pickett, Malik Gant

Comments:  Brooks has been the odd man out on several projections I have seen thus far.  But Bill loves his special teamers.  So I think he sticks.  Not to mention that Chung took a beating last season, Duggar is unproven and we will see about Phillips.  Duggar may not even play much on defense this season if I had to take a stab.  Just a hunch.  I would guess he needs some transition time as he heads from Division II to the NFL.  Maybe it won’t be a long and/or hard transition.  We will have to wait and see on that.  But he will return plenty of punts though, so he’s going to have that going for him.  As long as Edelman isn’t doing that, it works for me.  Oh yeah, and as long as Sanu is never, ever, ever back there again either.

Specialists (7):

Locks:  Justin Rohrwasser (K), Jake Bailey (P), Joe Cardona (LS), Matthew Slater (ST), Justin Bethel (ST), Brandon Bolden (ST), Brandon King (ST)

In:  None

Out:  Cody Davis (ST)

Comments:  Davis will find himself on the roster to begin the year as well.  They gave him a fat 1.5 mil, so he kind of is earmarked for it, no?  I just had to leave him off for the number’s sake right now.  You know how it works…players get hurt and traded and some turn out to be useless.  Then an undrafted guy or three make some noise in camp and they can’t slip through to the practice squad.  Or they may actually be pretty good or at least can fill a niche role on the squad on Opening Day.  And as a result, everyone’s projections look stupid.  Rumor has it that Davis is a pretty good special teams guy, so there will always be room for him on Bill’s roster.  I mean, can you ever have enough guys that play solely special teams?

So that is that, another fun exercise for guys like me only probably.  With the season months away and training camp not even close, this projection means about as much as all the others out there.  Zero.  Nada.  Absolutely nothing.  But that’s ok.

Bottom line, let’s just hope there is a season in 2020.

Patriots Post Draft Roster Projection…

…because a) everyone else is doing it and b) we are really scraping together things to actually write about in the sports world…

No need for further introduction, except for again, no one is “Way Out” at this time of year, so we are skipping that usual category.  Oh, and since we have no idea on who most of the undrafted free agents are at this point, we won’t really comment much about them…not until we get to see a little of them in the preseason anyway.  If there is a preseason, that is.

Offense:

QB (2):

Locks:  Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer

In:  None

Out:  Brian Lewerke, J’Mar Smith

Comments:  If not taking a quarterback, even late, in the draft doesn’t tell the world that the Pats are going with Stidham, I don’t know what else will do it.  There is a groundswell of support for starting Hoyer and giving the kid extra games to “be ready”, but why bother?  Just give the kid the job and let him run with it.  And if he sucks, STILL let him run with it.  Because then they may be able to play “Tank for Trevor (Lawrence)” or “Fail for (Justin) Fields”.  I doubt it will ever get to that point actually.  But we know what Brian Hoyer is.  And it ain’t an NFL starting QB.  So leave him with the headset and clipboard and let the kid sink or swim.  If the Patriot brain trust is apparently that confident in Stidham, shouldn’t the rest of us be also?

RB (5):

Locks:  Sony Michel, James White, Damien Harris

In:  Rex Burkhead, Dan Vitale (FB)

Out:  Jakob Johnson (FB), J.J. Taylor

Comments:  Rex is a popular potential salary cap casualty, as previously noted.  But we think he sticks around as the Pats will presumably lean on the ground game more.  We gave three options for James Develin in the pre-draft projection, he could be released, put on Injured Reserve or the Physically Unable to Perform list.  Didn’t even think of “retire”.  Stupid.  That one should have been kind of obvious.  But that doesn’t lock in Vitale I don’t think.  Not yet anyway.  And it has nothing to do with Jakob potentially beating him out either.

WR (5):

Locks:  Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu

In:  Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers

Out:  Marqise Lee, Gunner Olszewski, Quincy Adeboyejo, Devin Ross, Will Hastings, Sean Riley, Isaiah Zuber, Jeff Thomas

Comments:  No way the Pats let Sanu go as a cap casualty after they dealt a second rounder for him and he was useless last season.  Byrd is the frontrunner to return kicks, so he probably sticks.  Meyers had a good rapport with Stidham last preseason and showed some promise during the year.  Hard to believe the Pats give up on him now.  Lee seems like a flyer to see if he has anything left.  Thomas would have supposedly been drafted if he didn’t have off-field issues.  Sounds like a solid practice squad candidate to me.  Hastings is interesting because he changed positions in college to receiver from…kicker?  How does that happen?  Sorry Gunner.  Nice story last year.  But there are too many waaaaay better options this time around.

TE (3):

Locks:  Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene

In:  Matt LaCosse

Out:  Ryan Izzo, Rashod Berry, Jake Burt

Comments:  Think they keep the veteran LaCosse around to help bring the two draftees along.  Maybe Matty has shaken the injuries and actually has something to show.  They could keep Izzo for cheaper.  But since he has been largely hurt for his two seasons here and not necessarily good when out on the field, my guess is he can slide to the practice squad for the time being.

OL (9):

Locks:  Isaiah Wynn (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG),

In:  Marcus Cannon (RT), Korey Cunningham (T), Jermaine Eluemunor (G), Yodny Cajuste (T), Hjalte Froholdt (G/C)

Out:  Michael Onwenu (G), Najee Toran (G), Justin Herron (T), Dustin Woodard (C)

Comments:  Could be some moving pieces here before the start of the year.  If the Pats and Thuney can’t hammer out an extension for some cap relief, he could be dangled.  Also, did you know that Cannon has the FIFTH highest cap charge on the books for 2020?  The team has about 2 million of cap room left and still need to sign all of their draft picks.  Sure, other guys could get released or they could restructure.  But if most of his 9.6 mil comes off in a cut, this may be an easy one.  Remember how bad he sucked last year?

It’s doubtful the Pats go this route, but I suppose you never know.  The four dudes that are “in” aren’t necessarily so.  But hard to believe that Cunningham and Eleumunor get axed, despite playing sparingly last season.  The team gave up picks to get them.  Then again, neither could play over the immortal (and royally horrific) Marshall Newhouse last season, so there is that.  They also gave Jermaine a 2.1 mil tender.  So maybe they have some hopes for him, in particular.  Cajuste and Froholdt were 2019 draftees that spent all year on injured lists.  Hard to see them not getting another chance.  Though I’d love to find a way to get Onwenu on the roster.  Because I think he ends up on it when the real season starts.  Just can’t find the space for him on this right now.

Next:  Defense and specialists.

Are We Ready? Part III…

Lastly, everybody else:

Defense:

DE (3):

Locks:  John Simon, Chase Winovich

In:  Derek Rivers

Out: Deatrich Wise, Keionta Davis, Nick Thurman, Tashawn Bower

Comments:  Wishful thinking on Wise I guess.  Rivers perhaps too.  With Wise, it’s probably time for him to go.  He still looks like he can add value, but they haven’t played him much.  And when they do, he always commits at least one dumb penalty.  As for Rivers, he has played one season out of his three thus far.  Two full years on injured reserve.  I only added him here because while we have seen enough of Wise on the field, we really haven’t with Rivers.  Can he play?  Who the hell knows?

Truth be told, this position could use a major upgrade, so they both probably won’t be here when the smoke clears.  And it probably won’t matter.

I’m not sure I even want Winovich to play full time either.  He looks to me like a situational pass rusher and core special teamer.  But what do I know?

I’d use a few draft picks here for sure.

DT (4):

Locks:  Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Beau Allen

In:  Byron Cowart

Out:  None

Comments:  I don’t know a single thing about Allen.  He has to be as good as Danny Shelton though, no?  Well, the 2019 version.  Not the 2018 healthy scratch one.  Again, I am not sure why we will miss Shelton anyway.  When did he become a key loss?  It’s not exactly like the Pats were real stout against the run last year.

In a normal year, Guy may be a candidate for an extension and a lower cap number.  But again, I don’t think the Pats are doing that with anyone this offseason.  Everyone who watched tape swore that Guy was awesome…and has been since he has joined the Pats.  I’ll take their word for it.  Again, how were they against the run last season?  Sigh…

Expect a draft pick or two here as well.

LB (5):

Locks:  Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley

In:  Shilique Calhoun, Brandon Copeland, Terez Hall

Out:  None

Comments:  Calhoun I guess plays some “edge” and is a special teamer.  Copeland comes from the Jets, which automatically makes me question him.  Hall is getting some buzz here in the spring as a guy that could make some noise.  That should make Hall himself nervous.  Too early for that kind of hype.

Hightower is one of the three aforementioned players with huge cap hits that could be addressed.  But similar to Devin McCourty last season, we think Dont’a gets all his money on this contract and plays this year as is.  Leadership, team transition, call it what you want.  Hightower has won Super Bowls and will probably be seeking one last big fat contract before he is done.  He was allowed to shop himself last time he hit free agency (a la Devin), but nothing apparently materialized and he ended up back in NE.  Maybe he took a discount last time.  But not next time.  Bill will gladly take the compensatory pick next year when Dont’a walks.

Big year for Bentley.  Let’s see if he can get back to what he showed in his rookie season before his injury.  Because he was no great shakes last year.

Draft picks are sure to be had here as well.

And at least Elandon Roberts is gone.

CB (5):

Locks:  Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Jason McCourty, Joejuan Williams

In:  None

Out:  D’Angelo Ross, Lenzy Pipkins

Comments:  Some buzz about trading Gilmore now…who is the last of the three I mentioned earlier (Hightower, Thuney) that would be normal candidates for extension or trade to get the cap number down on a team that would seem to be transitioning.  Steph has another year besides this one left on his deal and after he won NFL Defensive Player of the Year last season, no doubt will be looking for a HUGE payday in his next deal.  At age 29 right now, he is unlikely to get it here.  I expect him to be here this year at the current cap number.  Then I would absolutely not rule out a trade next offseason, even if this season goes way better than expected.

Pretty solid cornerback group otherwise.  Keeping Jason McCourty at his inflated option price probably helped keep his brother Devin.  But in today’s NFL, with its emphasis on passing, you would seem to need a slew of good corners.  So having Jason around won’t hurt them.

Jones plays well out of the slot and Jackson is still young and improving.  He may be the #2 guy this year anyway.

I don’t see the Pats giving up on last years’ second rounder Williams.  Although, they gave up on the previous years’ second rounder, Duke Dawson, fairly quickly.  And Joejuan got busted for drugs earlier in the offseason.  So that can’t help.  But since the drugs were weed, he’s probably safe.

S (5):

Locks:  Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Terrance Brooks

In: Obi Melifonwu, Adrian Phillips

Out:  Adarius Pickett, Malik Gant

Comments:  Somewhat surprising Devin got as much dough as he did…but it was only for two years, so I am ok with it.  Especially under the circumstances.  Meaning, his leadership matters.  And, more importantly, a LOT of contracts are coming off the books in the next couple of years.

In fact, while we are talking about it, the Pats only have 12 players under contract in 2022.  8 are 1 million-ish and under.  Joejuan is about 2 and N’Keal about 3.  Only Jonathan Jones at about 8 and Mason at about 10 are significant outlays that year.

Interesting.

Anyway, back to the safeties.  Still old.  How much does Chung have left?  He took a beating last season.  Moreso than he usually takes.  Phillips (allegedly) and Brooks are glorified special teamers.  Maybe Obi-Wan Kenobi too (and I’ve never even seen any of the Star Wars…impressive, no??!!  Ok, ummm…).

Expecting some draftees here as well.

Specialists (8):

Locks:  ????? ?????????? (K), Jake Bailey (P), Joe Cardona (LS), Matthew Slater (ST), Justin Bethel (ST), Brandon Bolden (ST), Brandon King (ST)

In:  Cody Davis (ST)

Out:  None

Comments:  Welp, they will eventually need a kicker.  So…that position has to kind of has to be a lock, no?  I’m thinking inexpensive, mid-round pick.  With Nick Folk (still unsigned) on speed dial.  No one is talking about it now either.  But can we rule out a return for long-time kicker…Stephen Gostkowski…at some point?  Haha…did you think I was going to say Adam Vinatieri?!  Nah.  He may come back to the Colts, but I am thinking his time has come for the old age home.  He won’t be here, for sure.

What if Gostkowski has a clean bill of health late in camp or at least early in the season?  And doesn’t have a job by then?  Would he come back for presumably short money?  I’d keep an eye on that for sure.

The rest of the guys…blah, blah, blah.  Have to have a requisite number of core special teamers, don’t you?

That concludes our waaaaaaay too early look at the roster.  Probably about 60% accurate from who will break camp with the team in August/September.  But always a fun exercise to do…even in April.  Again, since there isn’t much of anything better to do…

Next:  We are done…I wouldn’t have the energy I don’t think anyway…