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Week Eleven…

…no comments necessary to start:

Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cleveland

The Jags have beaten up on bad teams this year for the most part.  Cleveland is a bad team.

Jacksonville 27, Cleveland 13.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-2.5)

Tampa has certainly underachieved this year, but I am not sure how Miami can be favored against anyone.

Tampa Bay 23, Miami 17.

Arizona (-1.5) at Houston

Blaine Gabbert versus Tom Savage.  Ugh…

Houston 17, Arizona 14.

Washington at New Orleans (-7.5)

Spread initially seemed a little high to me, but then again the ‘Skins gave up 38 to Case Keenum last week and now have to face the explosive Saints in their dome at home.  Then the number made more sense.

New Orleans 42, Washington 24.

Kansas City (-10.5) at New York Giants

The G-Men got blasted by the previously winless 49ers last week.  It’s over…

Kansas City 37, New York Giants 10.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota (-2.5)  

The Rams are 7-2 and are putting up a ton of points.  Great story.  But the schedule hasn’t actually been loaded with quality opponents either.  The Vikings are 7-2 as well…and are a quality opponent.

Minnesota 27, Los Angeles Rams 24.

Baltimore (-2.5) at Green Bay

A few years ago, this would have been a marquee matchup.  Sunday?  Not so much.

Baltimore 21, Green Bay 16.

Detroit (-2.5) at Chicago 

Could be a better game than we think.  Then again, could be a snoozer too.

Detroit 27, Chicago 20.

Buffalo at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) 

Sean McDermott didn’t come to Buffalo to be 5-4.  What?!!  5-4 is AWESOME for Buffalo these days!  Tyrod Taylor is no Hall of Famer, but the switch to some dude named Nathan Peterman at this point in the season appears to be a head scratcher.

Los Angeles Chargers 20, Buffalo 10.

Cincinnati at Denver (-2.5)

I normally would have no problem picking Denver here as I would be convinced that they would turn it around and get back on track.  But 5 losses in a row and 92 points given up the last two weeks are hard to ignore.  They may be quitting on their coach on top of everything else.  But then I notice the Broncos are playing the Bengals.  Such a dilemma.

Denver 27, Cincinnati 21.  

New England (-6.5) “at” Oakland

In Mexico City.  The Pats may be hitting their stride.  I don’t know what Oakland is doing.

New England 38, Oakland 24.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas

Dallas got pasted by the Falcons last week.  The Eagles are absolutely rolling right now.  This pick won’t make any sense to anyone.  I’m still trying to figure it out.  Total gut feeling.

Dallas 31, Philadelphia 27.  

Atlanta at Seattle (-2.5)

Seattle has some injuries in their secondary.  But despite the Falcons big win at home against Dallas last week, still not buying in.

Seattle 30, Atlanta 24.

Week (against the spread):  1-0

Week (straight up):  1-0

Season (against the spread): 72-75

Season (straight up): 94-53

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Oh So Close…

…to getting back to .500 and/or over…oh well, we will take a crack at it again this week…

I’d usually talk a little here about last week’s New England Patriots game against the Denver Broncos.  But no sense in that.  No one wants to hear any more about Brock Osweiler or Vance Joseph.  Or the fact that the Broncos may actually be quitting on the season.  Or how the coaching staff for the Broncos thought it was a good idea to send Von Miller into coverage even once.  Or all the rest…

So let’s just jump in on the Thursday Night Football game:

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

The Steelers haven’t exactly smoked people this year.  Neither have the Titans.  On paper, this looks like a close one.  So I should be taking Tennessee and the points right?  Yeah…but upon further review, the Titans have played four road games.  They have scored less than 14 points in three of them.  Against Houston, Miami and Cleveland.  The 37 scored at Jacksonville in Week 2 seems like a distant memory.

The Steelers have only played 3 home games thus far.  Beating the Vikings by 17 and Bengals by 15…while also getting smoked by the Jags.  So I guess the Jags are the outlier for both teams.  Either way, I feel like the Steelers will enjoy the home cooking this week.  Nothing more than that really.

Pittsburgh 31, Tennessee 17.

Week (against the spread):  6-8

Week (straight up):  9-5

Season (against the spread): 71-75

Season (straight up): 93-53

Week Ten…

…jumping right in and feeling confident…let’s see how long that lasts:

New Orleans (-2.5) at Buffalo

Actually, starting off on one that I have no confidence in at all.  Buffalo at home, where they are 4-0.  New Orleans outside a dome, where they historically don’t play as well.  Probably a cold weather game.  Buffalo with 10 days to prepare after getting blasted by the Jets.  Seems like a Buffalo pick, no?  Well, no…and this is purely a gut feeling with no rhyme or reason behind it.

New Orleans 27, Buffalo 23.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis

Indy has been a fairly competitive 3-6 team.  But not this week.

Pittsburgh 31, Indianapolis 17.

Cleveland at Detroit (-11.5)

There’s usually no way in hell I’d ever lay 11.5 with Matty Stafford and the Lions.  But I just have no more words to describe how bad the Browns really are.

Detroit 38, Cleveland 13.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (-4.5)

Kind of another gut feeling here as well.  Jax at 5-3 just doesn’t feel right to me.  The Jags at 6-3 just seems even sillier.  I think that’s all it comes down to for me actually.

Los Angeles Chargers 24, Jacksonville 21.

Green Bay at Chicago (-4.5)

Hard to believe that the Packers lose one guy and they completely fall apart.  I know, Aaron Rodgers as that one guy is obviously huge.  But Tom Brady missed a year and the Pats rode Matty Cassel to a more than respectable 11-5.  Though when the Colts lost Peyton Manning for his year, they went 2-14.  So I guess it shouldn’t be too hard to believe for the Packers.  Whatever…

Chicago 20, Green Bay 13.

New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay 

Tampa is reeling, no doubt.  Lost 5 in a row.  Jameis Winston is out.  The J-E-T-S are a (very) surprising 4-5.  But can this be a Ryan Fitzpatrick revenge game?  FITZY!!!!

Tampa Bay 31, New York Jets 27.

Minnesota (-1.5) at Washington

This one I think could be a good one.  Really?  Yup.  Big win for the ‘Skins last week at Seattle, coming back late…not one of Kirk Cousins’ strengths.  Got them back to .500.  The Vikes have cruised to 4 in a row, but against inferior competition.  Should be a close battle, but going with the home team here.

Washington 24, Minnesota 23.

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-5.5)  

How did A.J. Green not get suspended?  Guess it really doesn’t matter for the Bungles.

Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 14.

Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) 

Doesn’t appear that anyone can stop the Rams this year.  Certainly not the injury-ravaged Texans, I would think.

Los Angeles Rams 34, Houston 13.

New York Giants (-0.5) at San Francisco

Hopefully no one is subjected to this game being televised in their market.  Teams are a combined 1-16, so I suppose the half a point spread is about right.  I don’t know if the Niners plan on starting (or even playing) Jimmy Garoppolo.  But I say they should.  The Colts threw Jacoby Brissett right into the mix and he has been serviceable.  Isn’t Jimmy G supposed to be better?  Plus, what better team to start him out at than the pathetic G-Men?  OK, maybe the Browns, but you get my point.  Just do it!

New York Giants 14, San Francisco 13.  

Dallas at Atlanta (-2.5)

So I guess the Ezekiel Elliott suspension is back in force.  I still believe the ‘Boys have enough to win without him.  I said last week that I thought the Falcons look like they are done and I’m sticking to it.  Especially after that brutal drop by Julio Jones last week on that 4th down play where he was 10 yards behind the defense.  There’s really no explanation for that.  Other than that the team is done.

Dallas 27, Atlanta 20.

New England (-7.5) at Denver

Speaking of things I said last week, I said that Denver’s D was still legit.  Then they went out and gave up 51 to the Eagles.  Nice call.  But still, I am not ready to give up on the Bronco D at this point.  I’ll give up on their QB’s, but not the D.  The Pats are coming off a bye, but believe it or not, they’ve struggled some in that situation over the years…from what I recall anyway.  Denver is always a tough place to play.  It appears that Phillip Dorsett will log heavy snaps at receiver Sunday night, obviously not ideal.  Game will be closer than most think.  I wouldn’t even be shocked if the Broncos won.

New England 27, Denver 23.  

Miami at Carolina (-9.5)

I still think Miami stinks, despite their 4-4 record.  But the 9.5 seems a little high to me.  The Panthers don’t exactly blow teams out.

Carolina 24, Miami 17.

Week (against the spread):  1-0

Week (straight up):  1-0

Season (against the spread): 66-67

Season (straight up): 85-48

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