Blog Archives

New England Patriots Roster Projection-Offense

It’s that time of year again.  Training camp opened up last week for the New England Patriots.  Already there has been a somewhat surprising retirement and maybe some insight into a future surprise cut.  But for now, the team has 90 players in camp, so let’s get right to it.  The first roster projection of the year, right here:

Offense:

QB (3):

Locks:  Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett

In:  None

Out:  None

Way Out:  None

Comments:  Jimmy Football will be the starting QB by the opening of the 2019 season.  Yup, probably not a stretch here.  Brady will be 42 before that season starts.  And as much as he is on his special training regimen at his TB12 facilities, with his questionable trainer in Alex Guerrero and his range of products such as the concussion water (which apparently does not actually work, if you ask Giselle) and all that….the fact remains is that age 42 is age 42.  You simply do not see many athletes performing at a high level at that age…in any sport.  Brady did play at a high level at age 39 last season still, but as we have seen with guys like Peyton Manning and Brett Favre, the end can come quick.  People often forget that Brady had a 4 game “vacation” at the beginning of last year.  He won’t have that this year.

This analysis isn’t to bash the legend, though I admit after I re-read it, it sure sounds like it.  My apologies.  Brady will be the unquestioned starter this season.  And I expect it to be a pretty good season still for him, without a doubt.  The point really to be made here is that although we have seen greatness for quite some time at this position, it could change in an instant.  Of course we could say this about any football player at any position…any athlete in any sport actually.  But I think the locals truly believe Brady when he says he can play until his mid-to-late 40s.  I’m just here to drive the expectations of that crowd down.  So is Bill Belichick.  He clearly could have gotten top dollar for Jimmy G around the NFL draft in the spring but chose to keep him.  Does Bill think he is the real deal and the franchise going forward?  Perhaps.  Maybe he just wants good QB insurance for this (presumably) long upcoming season.  And then pulls a Matt Cassel and franchise tags Jimmy and then trades him before next season.  I think Bill would have to be convinced that Brissett is the next big thing also and ready to step in when Tom eventually fades for that to happen.  I don’t see it, but you never know…

Can’t forget about the old Madden curse either…with Brady on the cover this season.  Just sayin’…

RB (5):

Locks:  Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead, James White, Dion Lewis

In:  James Develin

Out:  Brandon Bolden, D.J. Foster, Glenn Gronkowski

Way Out:  LeShun Daniels

Comments:  Last year I had Brandon Bolden as only one of two locks, simply because of his special teams value.  He had also managed to not kill the team when they played him on offense as well.  So that didn’t hurt.  But he was brutal on offense last year, they have 63 guys that can play special teams this year, the team signed Gillislee and Burkhead to decent sized contracts to replace the departed Hall of Famer (according to some fans) LeGarrette Blount, among other things.  Oh, and when Bolden was free to sign with anyone in the spring, no one really wanted him.  So he’s out this year, but can easily be re-signed if needed, since again, no one really wants him.  I can’t believe I just wrote that much about Brandon Bolden.

People want to make Lewis a surprise cut this year, but I am not sure that will happen.  He undoubtedly will give them all he has for a half a season or so and then get hurt again.  So things will take care of themselves there eventually.  Gillislee and Burkhead will hopefully be more productive than Blount.  I still don’t love James White.  But he signed an extension as well and ideally will springboard off his fantastic Super Bowl performance.  We shall see.  Bill loves Develin.  Maybe better use of that roster spot elsewhere, but I see them keeping the fullback.  Foster is going to be on the fringe this year.  The “other” Gronk is depth and expendable.  And I don’t even know who Daniels is.

Speaking of Blount, I love how the team slapped that “May 9th tender” on him when they officially knew that they weren’t bringing him back.  The tender allowed the Pats to count Blount as part of the compensatory draft pick formula when he signed elsewhere.  And if he didn’t sign elsewhere after a certain date in July, he could only play for the Pats.  No one has ever heard of this tender before.  Probably people working in the league likely included.  But the Pats are ALL business.  Ask pretty much every veteran they let go of over the years when they had their replacements ready.  Troy Brown was maybe the one exception, as they let him hang around for a year longer than they should have.  But Troy spent most of that year on the PUP list.  ALL business.  Just be ready when that business involves Brady.

WR (5):

Locks:  Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell

In:  Danny Amendola

Out:  Austin Carr, Devin Lucien

Way Out:  Cody Hollister, K.J. Maye, Tony Washington

Comments:  Pretty much set in stone.  The problem is that the team usually likes its backup receivers to play special teams.  Mitchell and Amendola really don’t, other than Danny on returns.  But hard to see them ditching Danny after he took yet another pay cut…and is pretty damn clutch.  I believe they paid Carr and Hollister more dough than rookie free agents get, but there is simply no room.  They may find their way onto the practice squad, along with Lucien.  Maye and Washington just signed in the last few days.  Should get plenty of time with Brissett in the early preseason games and they can tell their kids they played with the Patriots in their careers.

TE (2):

Locks:  Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen

In:  None

Out:  Matt Lengel, James O’Shaughnessy

Way Out:  Jacob Hollister, Sam Cotton

Comments:  The Pats gave Gronk some more money when they didn’t have to, so hopefully he is happy.  And of course healthy.  Those close to the team are also pointing at Allen as a surprise cut.  I don’t see it…yet.  But it also wouldn’t shock me if Belichick cut him and kept both Lengel and O’Shaughnessy.  Let’s see how camp goes.  My guess is they actually start the year with 3 TE’s, but play some roster shenanigans at the final cutdown to give themselves a better chance at keeping some kids elsewhere.  Then they can bring back at least one of Lengel or O’Shaughnessy a couple of days after final cuts.  If that even matters to you…

OL (9):

Locks:  Nate Solder (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG), Marcus Cannon (RT), Antonio Garcia (T)

In:  Ted Karras (G/C), Conor McDermott (T), Jamil Douglas (G)

Out:  Cameron Fleming (T), LaAdrian Waddle (T), James Ferentz (C)

Way Out:  Cole Croston (T), Andrew Jelks (T), Jason King (G), Max Rich (T)

Comments:  A little more settled than the beginning of last year.  The Pats were a disaster on the line at the end of 2015 and seemed to be throwing numerous bodies at the problem during last years’ camp.  Almost no jobs were set in stone.  Dante Scarnecchia was returning to coaching.  Not the case this year.  The starters are locked in.  Although this does not mean it is a dominant line, at least it’s a start.

Seems to me that Garcia was taken in the 3rd round of this past draft to eventually slide into Solder’s spot once his contract runs out at the end of this season.  Did you realize Solder has the second highest cap hit on the team this year behind Brady?  Me neither.  Anyway, Nate may get PAID next offseason.  Garcia may take his place as a result.  (Another reason to make a switch to a more mobile Garoppolo, by the way).  In any event, he is locked in.

I feel like they will hang on to McDermott to start and then hopefully slide him onto the practice squad shortly after final cuts.  A supposed project, he seems to have the physical characteristics they’d like to have at tackle.  And took him in the 6th round as one of their mere four draft picks.  Karras was a backup in the middle last year and I imagine he will fill the same role this year.  Another backup guard seemed to be in order, so I took Douglas over King.  Since Douglas spent some time on the practice squad last year I believe.  That may be a spot for a veteran upgrade at some point.

There seems to be no room in this scenario for Fleming and Waddle, who were on the team all of last year.  But as referenced with Bolden and the TE’s above, they may slide through unclaimed and be available for pickup at a moments notice.  If not, I am sure no one really cares.  Kind of like the last five guys on the outside looking in.  Though a handful of those guys are sure to end up on the practice squad at some point.

Next:  Defense and specialists

New England Patriots Free Agency Roundup, Part 2

NFL free agency begins Thursday afternoon at 4:00 pm.  Of course there is some sort of “legal tampering” period that starts Tuesday.  But let’s ignore that for now.  The following is one man’s thoughts on what’s going on with the players that ended the 2016 season on the Patriots’ roster, by position.

Wide receiver:

Players under contract:  Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Devin Lucien, Malcolm Mitchell

Free agents:  Michael Floyd

What I would do:  There’s a good chance I wouldn’t do anything to the group that ended the year on the team.  The top 4 of the group (Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and Amendola) have earned the complete trust of Tom Brady.  This alone is huge.  They run the right routes, make the right reads, have decent hands, make the tough catches and are completely comfortable in the system.  And all that.  Amendola gets banged up a lot and that would most likely necessitate carrying a 5th receiver (please no Matthew Slater here).  But these four seem to be a reliable crew in general.  Amendola would have to adjust his almost 8 million cap hit…and all indications are that he is amenable to that.  The other 3 have salaries that the team could live with.

That 5th receiver could be Floyd.  I’d be ok with that.  He likely will have to take one of those 1 year “prove it” deals that people love to talk about…and the Patriots like to give out.  At probably cheap money too.  Why not take a chance?  He’s got talent…and a head start in the system already.  There have been some rumors that the Pats have interest in New Orleans’ Brandin Cooks.  Wouldn’t argue with that either.  Not sure why he is even on the market, but that’s their problem I guess.  Lucien, a 7th rounder from last year, would not seem to be able to crack this group.  Maybe sticks on the practice squad again.

No reason to go too crazy finding other receivers to fit in here right at the start of free agency for sure.

What I think will happen:  Belichick doesn’t love dressing 5 receivers for games, unless they make an impact on regular special teams units.  Edelman and Amendola do returns, but none of the other guys above are a factor there.  But if Amendola takes that pay cut and returns, I think Bill adds either Floyd or another “traditional” receiver.  That also could come through the draft though.  Maybe they eventually make a trade for a Cooks or the like.  But this is another position that will be low priority in free agency for the team.

Tight end:

Players under contract:  Rob Gronkowski, Rob Housler,

Free agents:  Martellus Bennett, Matt Lengel (exclusive rights), Greg Scruggs, Michael Williams (?)

What I would do:  Bennett was a good soldier this year.  Kept his attitude in line.  You know he played hurt for a great deal of the season.  It’s a crime he and Gronk were not together, healthy, for a 16 game season.  That would have been fun to watch.  Bennett has his ring now and wants big money in free agency.  He will probably get it too.  If the dough is out of hand, I’d let him go.  I’d let him go regardless actually.  Because he is the type of guy that if he signs here for less than he believe he deserves, and he already has a ring, he could revert to his past ways where he is kind of a headache.  No thanks.

That being said, having a TE of Bennett’s caliber is something I think the team should pursue.  Gronk is Gronk.  But with another back surgery in the books.  The Pats should chase another TE that is in the upper tier.  Maybe buy low on someone like they did with Martellus last year.  Housler, Lengel, Scruggs and Williams don’t fit that bill.  I don’t even know if Williams is still here.  He spent all of last year on injured reserve and is still listed on their roster.  But not on the salary cap page from what I can see.  But that really doesn’t matter I suppose.  Anyway, maybe that upper tier TE comes in the draft.  But I’d look hard for one in free agency.

What I think will happen:  Bennett walks.  The team signs a couple of backup TE’s in the mold of a Clay Harbor or something.  A veteran with seemingly more to offer than the 4 “other” TE’s above, but not as good as Bennett.  Then work on getting another quality TE in the draft…which is supposed to be TE-rich.

Offensive line:

Players under contract:  David Andrews (C), Chris Barker (G), Marcus Cannon (T), Jamil Douglas (C), Chase Farris (T), Tre’ Jackson (G), Ted Karras (G), Shaq Mason (G), Nate Solder (T), Joe Thuney (G), LaAdrian Waddle (T)

Free agents:  Cameron Fleming (T) (restricted)

What I would do:  The line was exposed a bit in the playoffs.  Maybe it’s because the middle is full of young guys.  Maybe it’s because Cannon isn’t actually as good as he apparently played this year.  Maybe it’s because Nate Solder isn’t as good as people think he is, period.  Maybe it’s because it was Dante Scarnecchia’s first year back in the saddle and he is still working on some things with the unit.

The line seemingly played pretty well this year before the playoffs, so maybe the weaknesses showing up there can be fixed in the offseason…plus with more experience for the interior guys.  I’d work on getting better depth in free agency for one thing.  The team carried only 8 guys for most of the year…with Waddle mostly inactive and Fleming playing a lot of tight end when injuries hit.  I haven’t done any research, but I would say Belichick usually has 10 or so guys on the active roster.  Maybe he felt he didn’t need that this year with the line staying intact for most of the year.  And also with Douglas, Farris and Barker on the practice squad for most of the year too.

Even with Jackson returning from injury, none of the backup guys seem to inspire confidence.  I’d spend some time in free agency finding a better veteran backup swing tackle and a better veteran backup interior guy that can play both guard and center.  I’d also restructure Solder’s gruesome 11 mil cap hit.  The Pats will have plenty of cap space to do what they want.  But that number (currently second on the team overall) just doesn’t look right.

What I think will happen:  Nothing.  Maybe Solder gets an extension to shrink his cap number.  But I think these are most of the characters you see next year.  Certainly the starters.  Solder and Cannon, with his fat extension signed during last season, will be the tackles.  Thuney was a third rounder from last year that they love and he played something like all but 4 snaps the entire season.  He’s going nowhere.  Andrews seems entrenched.  If anything, maybe Mason gets pushed.  But by Jackson or Barker (since he can’t spend an 18th consecutive year on the practice squad I would bet), not by a vet they have signed.  They will probably bring in some big bodies at the middle to end of the draft.  But I doubt they sign any veterans.  Not in the first wave of free agency anyway.  I can tell you that Sebastian Vollmer ain’t coming back either.  So long Sea Bass!!

Next:  Onto the defense.

Was it a Dream?

Welp, Bill Belichick thought it may have been, so he re-watched the Super Bowl a mere few hours after the actual game.

Yup, a week and a half later I am still on the Super Bowl.  I would have normally been onto the Pro Bowl.  But they started playing that the week before the Super Bowl several years back.  So…forget about that I guess.

Anyway, my apologies to anyone who may actually be paying attention.  Snow storms and real life kind of got in the way recently.  Plus, I wanted to replay the game as well…because I definitely wanted to hear every single thing Joe Buck and Troy Aikman had to say from my own living room instead of a somewhat noisy bar.  Wait…not for that reason.  But to make sure I didn’t miss anything worth noting.  That hasn’t been noted a thousand times already.

But guess what?  There’s probably not that much that hasn’t been dissected in this game already.  By everyone under the sun.  So I won’t regurgitate most of the obvious stuff.  We all know about the early Patriot miscues (turnovers, drops, missing wide open receivers, long gainers on defense, Tom Brady getting hit a ton, etc.), Julio Jones’ great catches (specifically his last one), Julian Edelmans’ own fantastic catch, James White’s emergence, Danny Amendola’s re-emergence, Brady’s and Belichick’s greatness, Dan Quinn’s questionable play calling down the stretch, leading into the colossal collapse by the Falcons…and all that.  But I do want to point out a few nuggets that I personally thought were interesting though.  Maybe people have talked about them.  But if they have, they haven’t been talked about enough.

First, stop all this nonsense about this being “The Greatest Super Bowl EVER”.  Just not the case.  The final score was close and the game went into overtime, but that doesn’t make the game actually great.  Essentially, the Atlanta Falcons dominated the first 50% of the game and the New England Patriots dominated the second 50%.  That hardly makes for a great game.  Helluva a comeback definitely.  But that may sum it up.  You could point to a handful of even recent Super Bowls and call them better overall games…including pretty much any of the previous six for the Pats under Belichick.  That’s kind of why the Blowhard isn’t chirping about his 38-27 prediction being close to the 34-28 final.  Because it really didn’t play out the way he thought.

Let’s move on to the game plan.  I look back at some of these Super Bowls the Pats have been in and don’t see the best coaching jobs.  Sorry.  Belichick has this reputation where he is unbeatable after two weeks of preparation.  Maybe in the regular season, especially when the opponent is not coming off a bye.  Though that didn’t even work this year when they lost to a Seattle team coming off a short week and flying cross-country to Foxborough.  In the Super Bowl, the other team ALSO has two weeks to prepare.  I think some people lose sight of that.

Now, I didn’t advocate having Brady come out and throw 62 passes.  The last thing I wanted was to get in a shootout with Atlanta.  That would have been a no-win situation.  So I wanted some kind of balance for sure.  And some sort of ball control.

But force feeding LeGarrette Blount early?  And sending him out on sweeps?  Sure, Atlanta was supposed to be terrible against the run.  But remember, the Falcon defense is young and fast.  Blount was not going to beat them wide.  Why not Lewis on those plays?  And then when Blount was stuffed inside as well, how ’bout changing some stuff there as well?  Oh yeah, they did eventually.  But I thought it took waaaaay too long.  And I know, they were actually moving the ball well and the turnovers killed them.  But still…I suppose my biggest beef with this whole thing is the very first drive.  It would have changed everything likely if the Pats went down and scored a touchdown, maybe even a field goal.  But they sent Blount on a sweep that had no chance on 3rd and 1.  That one still eats me up for some reason…

Going back to the coaching…I know, Super Bowl opponents are supposed to be the best the NFC has to offer.  So of course they are going to be harder to coach against.  Especially since being in the NFC means maybe the Patriots haven’t seen much of them throughout the year and have a lot to catch up on in preparations.  But still…who’s idea was the Edelman cross field throw?  Yikes!!  And going back to the old Super Bowls, don’t give me the “Belichick KNEW not to take that timeout against Seattle late…”.  Methinks he got lucky on that one.

Tom Brady is getting all kinds of accolades for his performance.  As he should.  But man, does he have some brain farts in these big games sometimes.  That pick-six was atrocious.  As was that first down play down by the goal line on the second to last play of the game.  If a defensive back was covering Martellus Bennett on that play, the ball may have very well have been picked off.  And then what happens?  Ok, this may be nitpicking.  And stuff that has been analyzed over and over.  But man, these still stick in my craw as well.

Dan Quinn has certainly taken a lot of heat for not running the ball down the stretch…and deservedly so.  But how about his (non) use of Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman?  I know, the Falcons only had the ball for like 23 minutes.  But Jones caught all of his 4 targets.  It appears that Eric Rowe and a safety had coverage on Jones frequently (with Logan Ryan on Mohamed Sanu and Malcolm Butler on Taylor Gabriel).  Although this may not have been the D on every play, it appeared to be mostly the case.  Rowe actually had good coverage on Jones’ amazing catch late in the game.  But are you telling me that Atlanta couldn’t have taken more advantage of that matchup, even with the two bodies on Jones?

And Freeman had 2 huge gains on his way to 121 yards on 13 touches.  Over 9 yards a play.  Take away the 2 long gainers and he still is over 4 a touch.  Even if the Pats slowed him down running the ball other than his one big play, the Falcons couldn’t have taken advantage of him more in space with someone like Rob Ninkovich, Shea McClellin, Kyle Van Noy or Elandon Roberts in coverage?  13 touches is way too low, and TWO targets is insanely low.  Maybe they didn’t want him out there a lot on passing downs seeing that he whiffed on Dont’a Hightower when he strip-sacked Matt Ryan.  But still, seemed like a severe under utilization to me.

Did the Patriots’ defensive game plan cause Freeman and Jones to be underused?  Perhaps.  But either way, seemed like the Falcons could have adjusted around it.  My thanks to them for not doing so however.  It helps when you don’t use your best two players that much, not counting Matt Ryan of course.

What was Patrick Chung catching that punt over his shoulder with his back to the play deep in Patriot territory in the 4th quarter for?  Talk about potential disaster.

Falcons were 1 of 8 on third downs.  Seems hard to believe.

Atlanta was penalized 9 times to New England’s 4.  But don’t complain about the refs.  3 of Atlanta’s penalties were on one drive and were legitimate defensive holding calls…and that drive ended when they brought the interception back to the house anyway.  I believe they declined one or two penalties on the Patriots as well.  The officials were not a factor in this game, I don’t believe anyway.  Falcon fans may point to the OT pass interference call being questionable.  But as tame as it may have been, those always seem to get called.  I’m actually really upset that Bennett didn’t catch that ball anyway.  He should have.

We will talk more about Bennett’s poor game overall, as well as the state of the offensive line and the kicker formerly known as Stephen Gostkowski some other time.

Interesting game, emotional roller coaster for both teams, exciting finish…for Patriots fans anyway.  A lot more words than I expected to write here.  Hope it added some kind of value.  In any event, that’s a wrap!

Super Bowl:  1-0 (1-0 against the spread).

Total:  7-4 (6-5 against the spread).

Finished better than .500…phew!!

%d bloggers like this: