Monthly Archives: April 2013

Finally…the last projection

Kind of hard to follow/write about sports after the events of the last week about a half hour away from this address.  My heart goes out to all the victims of the Marathon tragedy, as well as the families of the victims and anyone else that it may have had an effect on.  I think all of us (at least locally) have been affected in some small way (emphasis on “small”, as it is a fraction of what the actual victims and their families have gone through).  But hopefully people can get back to living normal lives now that these suspects have been captured/killed, whatever normal means nowadays.  Anyway, the above is kind of deep for me, and probably not very well “spoken”, so I guess I should get back to the task at hand.

What follows is the remaining projections for the Sox season.  Way late, I know.  But note that these are guys who were not in the Opening Day lineup.  So technically these aren’t all “bench” guys, but they are people who started out there, one way or the other.

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bogaerts 10 32 4 7 1 0 1 3 2 9 1 1 0.219 0.257 0.344 0.601
Carp 87 270 36 66 17 0 11 39 34 61 1 2 0.244 0.329 0.430 0.759
Ciriaco 90 290 34 79 15 3 2 29 25 61 9 3 0.272 0.330 0.366 0.696
Drew 92 288 41 74 22 2 9 36 35 57 3 3 0.257 0.338 0.441 0.779
Holt 34 88 9 21 5 0 0 6 8 16 0 0 0.239 0.302 0.295 0.598
Kalish 30 111 15 27 6 1 2 12 10 24 2 2 0.243 0.309 0.369 0.678
Lavarnway 30 106 10 24 4 0 4 15 3 31 0 0 0.226 0.245 0.377 0.623
Nava 97 251 36 63 18 0 6 34 38 47 1 2 0.251 0.350 0.394 0.745
Ortiz 110 422 74 123 32 1 26 79 73 89 0 1 0.291 0.398 0.557 0.955
Ross 82 222 29 57 11 0 9 28 18 45 0 1 0.257 0.318 0.428 0.746
Sutton 15 52 6 15 2 0 1 8 4 12 0 0 0.288 0.333 0.385 0.718

Notes:

*Bogaerts–Looking at a “cup of coffee” in September.  May not get it because of 40-man roster space, but here’s hoping he does, whether it is successful or not.

*Carp–Thought he may play more, but has played sparingly so far.  Thought he would get some games in at 1B while Napoli DH’s and get some at-bats late as a defensive replacement.  Not so much.  But he still could.  Long season.  And Nava should cool off, as he always does.

*Ciriaco–Playing time really depends on Drew’s health.  Will see some time at 3B, but not much at 2B, unless Pedroia gets hurt.  Comes down to SS.  But any long-term injury will probably bring Iglesias back.  Most likely won’t have the success that he enjoyed when he blasted on the scene last year.

*Drew–Rough start for him so far in Boston.  But a horrendous signing regardless on whether he heats up or not.  Did we really need to spend 9.5 mil on him?  Couldn’t get him for 3.5?  I know it’s not my money, but there wasn’t a cheaper stopgap for this “bridge” year until Iglesias/Bogaerts came up for good?  I could have lived with Ciriaco/Holt until then.  He’ll get every chance in the world though.  And I expect him to get hurt again…runs in the family.

*Holt–May have been a little aggressive with the 34 games, but expect him to get some time during the year.  Probably mostly in September though.

*Kalish–Think I was way aggressive here on games and at-bats as well.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he missed the entire year.  Talent is supposedly there, but we may never see it.  Just hasn’t been able to stay on the field.

*Lavarnway–Salty may be in play at the trade deadline, so he could come up and catch with Ross after that.  Hope he finds that power again this year.  Realistically may be looking at 2014 for a real shot at the everyday catching job.

*Nava–Great story, no doubt.  Always seems to start out hot and this year is no exception.  Expect him to cool down.  Expect them to try to get Gomes more at-bats to “get him going” at some point too.  So his PT will probably wane a little bit.  But an easy guy to root for.

*Ortiz–Still think he can get the job done, but the question remains how long his heel will hold up.  I see him getting many days of rest to try to keep that thing healthy.  But I also see another DL stint in his future, sad to say.  I’m ok with the contract however.  ‘Roids or no ‘roids, he did a lot more for this franchise than some of the stiffs that were paid much more money than him over the years.  This contract is kind of like a “parting gift”.  Who cares?  The Sox have the money.  But I still wouldn’t have given anything to Drew.

*Ross–Probably will get more AB’s than your normal backup.  Should be ok.  Counted on more for his defense, but should hit a few bombs and not be horrid at the plate.  What else can you ask for from your backup catcher?

*Sutton–Just have a gut feeling we will see this guy again.  Not a bad 25th guy if it comes down to it.  Though I’d rather go younger, especially if you have to open up a 40-man roster spot somehow.

 

The bullpen

More Sox projections…better get them out at a quicker pace.  Or else the season will be half over.  As well as the Stanley Cup and NBA playoffs.  And the NFL draft.  And the socc…ok, nevermind on that last one.  But there is a lot to comment on these days.  And I haven’t.  Shame on me.

Anyway, we’ll make this one short.  Or try to.  Here is my take on the bullpen:

Last APP W L SV IP H R ER BB SO HR GS CG SHO ERA WHIP
Hanrahan 68 2 4 28 71 55 27 25 32 82 5 0 0 0 3.17 1.225
Bailey 41 2 3 14 45.7 35 18 17 15 51 4 0 0 0 3.35 1.094
Tazawa 61 2 1 1 59.6 57 23 22 10 56 4 0 0 0 3.32 1.124
Uehara 43 1 2 1 35.3 22 10 9 8 33 2 0 0 0 2.29 0.850
Miller 78 1 2 1 62.3 42 22 20 28 72 6 0 0 0 2.89 1.124
Mortensen 15 1 2 0 25.6 32 13 12 8 28 5 0 0 0 4.22 1.563
Wilson 8 0 0 0 11.3 14 6 6 4 12 2 0 0 0 4.78 1.593
Breslow 63 1 1 0 52.6 48 21 20 14 40 5 0 0 0 3.42 1.179
Bard 25 0 2 0 23.3 29 13 11 11 21 5 0 0 0 4.25 1.717
Carpenter 4 0 0 0 6.7 10 6 6 2 3 1 0 0 0 8.06 1.791
Carter 5 0 0 0 5.7 8 4 4 2 4 1 0 0 0 6.32 1.754
De La Rosa 3 0 0 0 4.7 6 3 3 3 6 0 0 0 0 5.74 1.915

Notes:

Hanrahan–May have to adjust that HR total.  I may even have been generous all around, since his numbers here are fairly decent compared to what I have been saying publicly.  In real life I have been calling him Melancon 2.0.  Guy coming over from an inferior league, on a bad team in a bad division and ending up in the AL East.  Not ideal.  But I think the Sox will stick with him, not only because they want him to close, but because Bailey will surely get hurt again.

Bailey–Probably would have been my choice to start the year as closer…again, until he got hurt.  Think he will end up with save chances and probably even take the role over for a stretch.  But health will likely prevent him from keeping it.  Too bad…he looks pretty good so far.  Like he has something to prove.

Tazawa–Appears to be the next in line here.  Fantastic finish to 2012, but wonder if that was mostly due to pitching in not many high pressure situations.  Then, when they threw him in some, it was late in the year against weaker September lineups.  Jury is still out in my mind.

Uehara–Extremely good pitcher since coming to the States.  However just isn’t out there a whole hell of a lot.  And the Sox have already stated their intention to “protect” him.  Will be valuable when out there, but because of the “protection”, how reliable can he be over the course of the season?

Miller–Not going to make 78 appearances if he can’t get the first batter out, as has been the case thus far.  But we’ll go with what we first thought coming into the season.  Sort of found his role last year and expected to see continued improvement.  But with relievers, I guess you never know.

Mortensen–He’s there right now.  And not a bad 12th/13th pitcher on a staff.  But eventually will go when Morales/Breslow/etc. come back from injury…or there is another Bard sighting. Probably will get dealt for another end of staff pitcher at some point, one that may have options remaining.  Needs to gain like 50 pounds too.

Wilson–Up earlier than expected.  May have played a bigger role over the summer than I expected anyway.  But originally thought most of his appearances would be in September.

Breslow–Will figure into the bullpen mix before long.  Steady vet that will be solid, but not spectacular.  Not much else really to say here.

Bard–Have to figure he will get another shot at some point.  But not convinced that he is all the way back, or ever will be.  Both him and the team made a major mistake in trying to convert him to starter.  Breaking news, I know.  But how could they both overlook the fact that he got hammered in the minors as a starter and that was why he was in the ‘pen to begin with?  Hard to figure.

Carpenter–Surely he will get a shot again as well…injuries, late season callup.  He was compensation for Theo, after all.

Carter–The Sox seemed to love him in Spring Training.  So maybe he’ll get his cup of coffee at some point during the year as well.

De La Rosa–Think the Sox will try and keep Rubby in the minors all year to continue to develop and get back from his Tommy John surgery.  But if he gets any time, will probably be in September…and in the bullpen.  Would love to see him and Webster get a legitimate shot at the rotation though in 2014…at the latest.

1 more projection to go…bench guys…or at least those who started the season on the bench…and the rest of those stragglers…

 

 

More SoxTalk

Nice NCAA final the other night.  Nice B’s win against a bad team the same night.  But time to get back to the Sox projections…before the season is over.

Like the 5-2 start, but not all-in yet.  Too early to get excited.  That’s the negativity in me.  But I will say that it was important that this team got off to a good start to keep people in the region interested.  The offseason moves did not come with a lot of fanfare.  I especially did not like most of them.  The Celtics and Bruins are heading to the playoffs…though how long the C’s stay in can be debated.  Even the NFL draft at the end of April will take some attention away.  So the Sox playing well out of the gate will help keep some eyes on them…and maybe keep that bogus sellout streak alive.

Anyway, onto the numbers,  Starting pitching for the year here:

Last APP W L SV IP H R ER BB SO HR GS CG SHO ERA WHIP
Lester 33 16 10 0 213.3 220 90 85 66 188 22 33 2 1 3.59 1.341
Buchholz 28 15 7 0 182.3 171 68 64 54 149 17 28 1 1 3.16 1.234
Dempster 33 12 12 0 204.7 225 106 101 86 159 32 33 3 1 4.44 1.519
Doubront 24 7 10 0 136.3 152 78 74 59 139 23 24 0 0 4.89 1.548
Lackey 27 10 12 0 168 185 90 85 63 116 28 27 1 0 4.55 1.476
Aceves 58 7 5 2 95.7 80 44 42 31 81 18 8 0 0 3.95 1.160
Morales 52 4 5 0 73.3 55 34 32 33 80 7 4 0 0 3.93 1.201
Webster 3 1 1 0 15.7 18 8 7 3 16 3 3 0 0 4.01 1.338
Wright 2 0 1 0 10.3 13 7 7 4 8 2 2 0 0 6.12 1.650

Additional notes:

*Lester–Look for some improvement out of him from last year, but not sure as much as people think.  First two outings have been nice, but we know it is a long season.  Just hope that he doesn’t turn into a guy like Avery, Kazmir or the D-Train…pretty good lefties in their 20’s that are essentially done by age 30.

*Buchholz–Think he will put up the best numbers on the staff.  Problem is, he won’t make 200 innings again…kind of a drawback if you want to call yourself an ace.  If he ever can get there…

*Dempster–Not excited about bringing a long-time NL pitcher to the AL East (outside of a stint in Texas last year, which the record was good, peripherals were not).  Should be able to eat innings however, and with Buchholz and questions at #4 & #5, isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

*Doubront–Still like the potential of the kid.  But expect him to take a little bit of a step back in Year 2.  Partly because his inning total was a huge jump from previous years.  Partly the division.  Partly the question on whether he can stop being affected by close calls not going his way.

*Lackey–Everyone is on his bandwagon, I am not.  Full disclosure:  I was ok with his signing initially.  Yes, he got wildly overpaid.  But they were going to spend the money on someone.  The other option was Matt Holliday.  Not a bad player, but I preferred pitching.  What is done is done.  But everyone now is excited about his weight loss, his coming back from Tommy John surgery supposedly being stronger and his performance in his first start.  Well, outside of the fact he got hurt again, I am not sold…yet.  We’ll see…

*Aceves–Expect this lunatic to get most of the starts the previous 5 do not.  But also don’t be surprised if he gets traded when the first opportunity arises.  He’s got talent, but is also a major head case.  Not a problem a lot of times.  But with the Sox trying to rebuild their clubhouse, as well as their team, as well as having excess bullpen arms (when all are healthy…and if you can ever really have “an excess”), I think if he pitches well enough he will be gone sooner rather than later.

*Morales–Wild card here.  Can be another lefty in the bullpen.  Can take the 6th starter role if Aceves is dealt.  But can he remain healthy bouncing back between those roles?  May have been a little generous in his appearances.  But a nice piece of the staff when he is active.

*Webster–Would love to see a lot more of this kid.  But I don’t believe that the Sox will rely heavily on him at his age, regardless of the circumstances.  I see them giving him a few starts toward the end of the year to give him a taste and that is about it.  Future is supposedly bright, however.  So we have that to look forward to.

*Wright–Knuckleballer is on the 40-man roster.  So I would guess that he would get called up at some point, whether it be injuries or when rosters expand in September.  I would also say that if he is up, he will get a couple starts and not mess with the catchers if he comes out of the bullpen.  Not counting on much from him, obviously.

 

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