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New England Patriots Roster Projection

It’s that time of year again…well, actually, I am a little late.  The first preseason game is tonight.  I guess I was just a little preoccupied with the Boston Red Sox’ collapse.  In any event, let’s dive right in:

Offense:

QB (3):

Locks:  Tom Brady, Jarrett Stidham

In:  Brian Hoyer

Out:  Danny Etling (WR??!)

Way Out:  None

Comments:  Some reports in camp have suggested Stidham is has outplayed Hoyer and that could make Hoyer expendable.  While outplaying Hoyer may not be that difficult, I am not ready to push him off the roster quite yet…despite the silly 3 mil cap hit.  Etling all of a sudden is a wide receiver I guess.  So much for him making much noise.  And please, no more about Brady’s contract…or him selling his house in MA.  As much as we all love him, he SHOULD be year to year.  Going into next season he will be 43 years old for Chrissakes.  Despite how he has seemed to defy Father Time, one never knows when the end will come.  He has said it himself, he is in uncharted territory.  I’d love to have him as long as he is…well…Tom Brady.  But how much longer will that be?

RB (5):

Locks:  Sony Michel, James White, Damien Harris, James Develin (FB)

In:  Rex Burkhead

Out:  None

Way Out:  Nick Brossette, Jakob Johnson (FB)

Comments:  Have a funny feeling Rex is a little bit on the bubble here.  I like the guy when he is healthy.  A lot actually.  But sometimes that is a big “if”.  And 4 pure running backs sometimes can be a bit steep.  Especially when there are other question marks on the roster.  But, in the end, Michel can be a bit of a question mark with regard to injury as well.  And Harris is still unproven.  So I am not sure Rex is in any real danger.  Yet.  I don’t know who Brossette is.  And Johnson will end up on the practice squad as their one “international signing” or some crap like that.  In any event, he doesn’t count against any part of the roster I hear, so off to the practice squad you go.

WR (4):

Locks:  Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry

In:  Phillip Dorsett, Maurice Harris

Out:  Jakobi Meyers, Dontrelle Inman, Braxton Berrios, Damoun Patterson

Way Out:  Ryan Davis, Gunner Olszewski

PUP:  Demaryius Thomas, Cameron Meredith

Suspended:  Josh Gordon

Comments:  Your guess is as good as mine!!!  Edelman…yup.  And the first rounder Harry.  Then…I have no f’n idea!!  Dorsett would seem to have the inside track as someone that has been here for 2 years.  And seems to be liked by everyone, despite not doing much on the field.  Harris was an early camp favorite, so he would seem to be in the lead.  But now comes…Jakobi Meyers!!  An undrafted free agent (and you know the Pats need to keep one to four of those!), all of a sudden he is the receiver that “Brady is the most comfortable with”.  OK.  There have been no games yet.  So I am pumping the brakes on that.  Inman I don’t think has practiced, but I could be wrong.  Berrios seems to get some buzz all the time, but is it actually translating?  The club just signed Meredith (can anyone say “Malcolm Mitchell”?), but with his injury history, I am not giving him a spot yet either.  You can bet Gordon will have a spot if he gets cleared.  But that may be a ways away if it does actually happen.  There will be some moving parts around this position during the exhibition season, you can count on that much.

TE (2):

Locks:  None

In:  Matt LaCosse, Lance Kendricks

Out:  Ryan Izzo, Stephen Anderson, Andrew Beck

Way Out:  None

Suspended:  Benjamin Watson

Comments:  Speaking of moving parts…I have no idea here.  LaCosse would seem to be a lock because of the contract they gave him.  But you never know.  Kendricks is kind of here by default.  Izzo and Beck?  Who knows?  Anderson could make some noise too.  I.  Just.  Don’t.  Know.

OL (7):

Locks:  Isaiah Wynn (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG), Marcus Cannon (RT),

In:  Hjalte Froholdt (G), Ted Karras (G/C),

Out:  James Ferentz (C),

Way Out:  Tyler Gauthier (C), Martez Ivey (T), Cedrick Lang (T), Dan Skipper (T), Tyree St. Louis (T)

NFI:  Yodny Cajuste (T)

Comments:  Thin.  There will be some moves here at the end of camp.  I’d bet my house on that.  Well, I won’t do that.  But I feel pretty good about it.  No one knows if Wynn can do the job.  But I don’t think they are rushing out to get Trent Williams from the Washington Redskins.  Too much dough.  AND…he wants more.  So I guess it’s Wynn or Thuney at left tackle.  We will see what happens.  Dan Skipper has gotten some run at first team left tackle I guess.  Apparently, the guy is a monster (physically folks!).  But also apparently, he has been on like 10 teams in his career and also has been turnstiled in camp as well.  How’s that for confidence?  A couple of veterans have signed and immediately retired.  Seems weird.  Either way, I think we will see some waiver claims here at the end of camp.  Don’t they have to??

Defense:

DE (5):

Locks:  Michael Bennett, Deatrich Wise, John Simon, Chase Winovich

In:  Derek Rivers

Out: Keionta Davis

Way Out:  Nick Thurman

Comments:  Fairly cut and dried here, though Davis was a favorite at times last year.  Think Rivers gets one more year after one year of being hurt and one year of being nondescript.  But with some of the linebackers rushing, never know if he gets phased out like Davis.

DT (4):

Locks:  Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Mike Pennel

In:  Byron Cowart

Out:  Ufomba Kamalu, David Parry, Danny Shelton

Way Out:  Trent Harris

Comments:  I made a joke about Shelton still being available when I did the roster projection in the spring.  I guess the joke is on us that they did actually sign him.  He’s been kind of useless.  The bigger joke will be when he makes the squad over Cowart, who they will inevitably attempt to get on the practice squad.  I can see this happening.

LB (5):

Locks:  Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Elandon Roberts

In:  None

Out:  Christian Sam

Way Out:  Shilique Calhoun, Terez Hall, Calvin Munson

Comments:  Roberts won’t go away.  Pretty obvious the rest of them.  Well, I saw another dudes’ projection that had Calhoun making it.  So I guess I should watch his reps more closely during the preseason games.

CB (7):

Locks:  Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Duke Dawson, Jason McCourty, Joejuan Williams

In:  Keion Crossen

Out:  Ken Webster

Way Out:  D’Angelo Ross

Comments:  This is a lot to carry at corner.  Perhaps Jones plays some safety, as he did in the Super Bowl.  Or perhaps Crossen gets cut.  But hard to believe after the way they tried to integrate him at times last year.  Maybe one gets traded…but which one?  Have a feeling they go heavy here though.

S (3):

Locks:  Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon

In:  None

Out:  Obi Melifonwu

Way Out:  Malik Gant, A.J. Howard

Comments:  I don’t see any other options here.  Again, think some of the corners and perhaps special teamers provide depth here, for better or worse.

Specialists (8):

Locks:  Stephen Gostkowski (K), Jake Bailey (P), Joe Cardona (LS), Matthew Slater (ST), Nate Ebner (ST), Brandon King (ST), Brandon Bolden (ST), Terrance Brooks (ST)

In:  None

Out:  Ryan Allen (P)

Way Out:  None

Comments:  Drafting a punter in the fifth round seemed to make that decision easy.  Bill loves his special teamers.  I don’t think there is anything else to discuss here.

Let the games begin!!

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Takin’ A Stab…

…so while the Boston Celtics and Boston Bruins presumably wrap up their current playoff series’ this coming week, one way or the other, and me waiting to comment more on them until after they are complete, we thought we could stuff a New England Patriot roster projection right in the middle of all that to pass the time.

How’s that for a run-on sentence?!

Oh and the Red Sox?  They seem to be rounding back into form.  But then they will probably lose the upcoming series to the Orioles.  So let’s push them off for a bit as well.

In any event, projections don’t really mean much, especially at this time of year.  But we certainly do love to do them.  Even better once all the draft picks and other nobodies fill up the 90-man roster without anyone ever seeing (or really, hearing) what they are doing in practices over the spring/summer.  So let’s get right to it:

Offense:

QB (3):

Locks:  Tom Brady, Jarrett Stidham

In:  Brian Hoyer

Out:  Danny Etling

Way Out:  None

Comments:  Stidham would have to be really atrocious all spring and summer for him not to stick.  Hoyer’s 3 mil cap hit is stupid, but he will be around for insurance for one more year.  Could they cut him and leave him “on call”?  Perhaps.  But I don’t see it playing out that way.  Unless Stidham is the real deal.  Some people have been pointing out that the Pats did keep 4 quarterbacks one year of the Belichick regime.  But that 4th QB was Brady.  Etling is…and will not…be Brady.  Plus if they thought he could be they would have kept him on the roster last year.

RB (5):

Locks:  Rex Burkhead, James White, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, James Develin (FB)

In:  None

Out:  None

Way Out:  Nick Brossette, Jakob Johnson (FB)

Comments:  Nothing to see here.  4 dudes from last season and a third rounder from this year.  Good enough.

WR (5):

Locks:  Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry

In:  Phillip Dorsett, Bruce Ellington, Demaryius Thomas

Out:  Braxton Berrios, Maurice Harris, Damoun Patterson

Way Out:  Ryan Davis, Jakobi Meyers

Suspended:  Josh Gordon

Comments:  Could be the position most in flux.  Edelman and the first rounder Harry are locks of course.  Then what?  The coaches seem to love Dorsett.  Thomas signed for fairly big coin and may start the year on the PUP list, so he likely sticks…unless he turns out to be Chad Ochocinco, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Joey Galloway or the like.  Meaning, he can’t get the offense or is officially done.  Maybe Berrios or Harris beats out Ellington.  Maybe none of the three make it.  There seems to always be some buzz around Berrios, but for now, I’m going with the veteran.  If, for some unknown…and unbelievable…reason Gordon is reinstated, then he gets a spot over everyone but the top two.  Not going to count on that, however.

TE (3):

Locks:  None

In:  Matt LaCosse, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Ryan Izzo

Out:  Stephen Anderson

Way Out:  Andrew Beck

Comments:  Complete turnover.  Worse yet, no Gronk.  In any event, your guess is as good as mine.  LaCosse got signed to a decent deal.  But the club seems to like Izzo and Anderson.  Sefarian-Jenkins may be the guy with the most talent, but who really knows with him?  Rumors of Ben Watson are in the air.  And perhaps Gronk at midseason?  Doubt it.  But it wouldn’t surprise me if none of these guys were here for Opening Night, to be brutally honest.

OL (8):

Locks:  Isaiah Wynn (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG), Marcus Cannon (RT),

In:  Yodny Cajuste (T), Hjalte Froholdt (G), Ted Karras (G/C),

Out:  James Ferentz (C), Brian Schwenke (C), Cole Croston (T)

Way Out:  Calvin Anderson (T), Jake Eldrenkamp (C), Tyler Gauthier (C), Cedrick Lang (T), Dan Skipper (T), Tyree St. Louis (T)

Comments:  On the other hand, this group seems to be fairly set in stone.  If Wynn is healthy, they probably go with him to replace Trent Brown at left tackle.  The other starters are mainstays.  The two fourth rounders would seem to be in, along with Karras who is the backup center.  Maybe an undrafted free agent sneaks in there somewhere since one or five always seem to make the team.  But for now, this seems right.

Defense:

DE (6):

Locks:  Michael Bennett, Deatrich Wise, John Simon, Chase Winovich

In:  Keionta Davis, Derek Rivers

Out:  None

Way Out:  Nick Thurman

Comments:  Bennett goes without saying, but the rest of the group looks to shake out like this.  Wise shows flashes from time to time, Simon re-upped for decent cake and Chase is a third rounder so they all are no brainers.  Think they give Davis and Rivers one more year.  But their spots are anything but safe.

DT (4):

Locks:  Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Mike Pennel

In:  Byron Cowart

Out:  Ufomba Kamalu, David Parry

Way Out:  Trent Harris, Frank Herron

Comments:  Wouldn’t shock me if a fifth body made it, but for now looks to be these guys.  Hey, Danny Shelton is apparently available!  Ugh…

LB (4):

Locks:  Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Elandon Roberts

In:  None

Out:  Christian Sam

Way Out:  Shilique Calhoun, Terez Hall, Calvin Munson

Comments:  Looks like Hightower’s high cap number is irrelevant to the team.  Roberts still stinks, but they love him.  Sam is still on the outside looking in.  May be a place where any of the last three players could sneak in with a big camp.  But maybe I just wanted to say the word “Shilique” again?

CB (7):

Locks:  Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Duke Dawson, Jason McCourty, Joejuan Williams

In:  Keion Crossen

Out:  Ken Webster

Way Out:  D’Angelo Ross

Comments:  Loaded.  McCourty signed a pretty pricy 2 year deal, so he’s firmly in, as opposed to last year where he was firmly on the bubble.  Hard to believe they would cut bait with Dawson after lugging him around all last year.  Williams’ second round status this year locks him in.  Crossen could be in trouble, but he supposedly showed well last year, we don’t believe they would just toss him by the wayside at this point.  Jones played plenty of safety in the Super Bowl, so maybe that’s part of next seasons’ plan?

S (3):

Locks:  Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon

In:  None

Out:  Obi Melifonwu

Way Out:  Malik Gant, A.J. Howard

Comments:  Harmon makes too much money (as does Devin, for that matter), but I don’t see them jettisoning him.  Some of the corners and special teamers can back up here, in my opinion.

Specialists (8):

Locks:  Stephen Gostkowski (K), Jake Bailey (P), Joe Cardona (LS), Matthew Slater (ST), Nate Ebner (ST), Brandon King (ST), Brandon Bolden (ST), Terrance Brooks (ST)

In:  None

Out:  Ryan Allen (P)

Way Out:  None

Comments:  A hunch on the punter.  Allen has been serviceable since he has been here.  And he had a helluva Super Bowl!  But they tried to replace him last year pretty much, by getting a dude with a big leg, trying to “hide” said dude by not punting him the entire preseason, yet he still was claimed by Buffalo at final cuts when they tried to get him through waivers to the practice squad.  Now they DRAFT one in the fifth round?  And Allen only signed for one year because “that’s what he (Allen) wanted”?  Seems like the writing is on the wall here.  The rest of the specialists…it’s almost like they have tenure here.  Yeah, Bolden left for a year, but you know Bill loves him.  And Brooks is new, but he was a kind of a “priority signing” if you will.

Final comments:  Yup, that’s 56 guys for a 53 man roster!!  I can add, I swear!  I thought it was pretty good narrowing things down as I went along position by position in order though.  I didn’t go back and adjust, because…I don’t have any real answers.  There will be injuries.  And trades.  That will pare things down.

But for the sake of accuracy, the three I would remove from above to have an actual 53-man projection would be both Keionta Davis and Derek Rivers at defensive end, to be honest.  They can move some linebackers around to cover the edge.  And it’s not like those guys have stood out in any way.  For the last cut, I considered Crossen, Hoyer (as discussed above), Ellington or one of the TEs.  But I’m taking the easy way out and putting Demaryius Thomas officially on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

I can do what I want I guess…but a lot can happen from now until September of course.  So again, this doesn’t really mean all that much in the end…

New England Patriots Roster Projection, v3

Let’s get right to it:

Offense:

QB (2):

Locks:  Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer

In:  None

Out:  Danny Etling

Way Out:  None

Comments:  Welp, Etling didn’t throw for 600 yards in the finale.  Not only that, but it looks like he stinks.  But it could be also that his receivers stink too.  Maybe they should have drafted the kid the Giants took, Kyle Lauletta, who was linked to the Pats all spring.  Whatever…it was a helluva an 86 yard run by Etling at the end of the game though.  We know Brady ain’t doing that this year.

RB (6):

Locks:  Rex Burkhead, James White, Sony Michel, James Develin

In:  Jeremy Hill, Mike Gillislee

Out:  Ralph Webb

Way Out:  Henry Poggi, Kenneth Farrow, Khalfani Muhammed

Comments:  Hill is probably a lock actually.  Gillislee did not play in the preseason finale.  Combine that with the uncertain health of Burkhead and Michel and I think he gets on the squad to start the year.  Farrow and Muhammed were signed a couple of days ago…it was nice of the Pats to do that.

WR (4):

Locks:  Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson

In:  Riley McCarron

Out:  Devin Lucien

Way Out:  Paul Turner, K.J. Maye

Suspended:  Julian Edelman

Injured Reserve:  Braxton Berrios

Comments:  As I said in the last projection, it wouldn’t surprise me to see McCarron stick.  And the fact that he didn’t play in last night’s game tells me he makes it…at least at the start.  Maye was signed a few days ago as well.  Good to see him again, as he was with the Pats in the preseason last year.  And I will say that I was shocked as sh&t to find out that Turner actually has some NFL experience from 2016.  But that shouldn’t help him here.

TE (3):

Locks:  Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen

In:  Jacob Hollister

Out:  Will Tye

Way Out:  None

Injured Reserve:  Ryan Izzo

Comments:  Allen’s recent pay adjustment locks him in.  Hollister has been chatted up frequently, so I guess he is in.  But maybe his injury keeps him off.

OL (8):

Locks:  Trent Brown (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG), Marcus Cannon (RT), LaAdrian Waddle (T)

In:  Ted Karras (G/C), Cole Croston (T)

Out:  Matt Tobin (T), Luke Bowanko (C/G), James Ferentz (C), Jason King (G), Ulrick John (T)

Way Out:  Brian Schwenke (C)

Injured Reserve:  Isaiah Wynn (T/G)

Comments:  John was getting some love, but he limped off last night and who knows how serious his injury is.  Bowanko is also hurt.  The top 6 are locked in, but you can pick whoever you want as the 2-3 backups and honestly, I couldn’t tell you who is better than who.  Should I be able to?  I don’t know.  But can you?

Defense:

DE (5):

Locks:  Trey Flowers, Adrian Clayborn, Derek Rivers, Deatrich Wise

In:  Keionta Davis

Out:  Eric Lee

Way Out:  Frank Herron

Comments:  I’m keeping Davis on, despite some questions during the telecast about him not making enough plays against backups in the preseason.  Just a hunch.

DT (4):

Locks:  Malcom Brown, Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton

In:  Adam Butler

Out:  Vincent Valentine

Way Out:  John Atkins, Trent Harris

Comments:  Still would like to find room for Valentine.  But maybe they think that they can slip him through to the practice squad, seeing that he missed all of last year.

LB (4):

Locks:  Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Elandon Roberts

In:  None

Out:  Marquis Flowers, Christian Sam

Way Out:  None

Injured Reserve:  Harvey Langhi

Comments:  First three are no-brainers.  Roberts didn’t play in the finale, so, unfortunately, it looks like he is a lock too.  Sam apparently wasn’t dressed last night, so maybe he is hurt and he ends up on IR?  Flowers is brutal, but he is a “core special teamer”, who actually also, very, unfortunately, does play some linebacker too.  He’s out for now, but my guess is that he’s a guy they can cut, not get claimed and be back for Week 1.  Maybe not, but he played a ton in the last preseason game.  That’s usually not a good sign.  And I think his 1.75 mil salary is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too high.  There’s some room for him to come down there.  Taking a stab here…

CB (6):

Locks:  Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Jonathan Jones, Duke Dawson

In:  Cyrus Jones, J.C. Jackson

Out:  Jason McCourty, Ryan Lewis, Keion Crossen

Way Out:  Jomal Wiltz

Comments:  No changes here.  McCourty is a guy that they could cut and re-sign in Week 2.  And he was playing a little safety in the preseason finale.  Maybe that’s a long-term thing.  But doesn’t help him for Saturday.  Crossen still has a shot to make the squad, at least temporarily.  But I think that may be a stretch at this point.

S (4):

Locks:  Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon

In:  Jordan Richards

Out:  Damarius Travis

Way Out:  A.J. Moore

Comments:  If Jason McCourty could ever supplant Richards, I’d love it.  But I don’t see it.

Specialists (7):

Locks:  Stephen Gostkowski (K), Ryan Allen (P), Joe Cardona (LS), Matthew Slater (ST), Nate Ebner (ST), Brandon King (ST), Nicholas Grigsby (ST)

In:  None

Out:  Brandon Bolden (ST), Geneo Grissom (ST)

Way Out:  Corey Bojorquez (P)

Comments:  “Bojo” couldn’t even punt in the last meaningless preseason game.  I think they play the same game with Bolden this year as they did last year…cut him for 2 days, keep a kid longer so they can sneak him on the practice squad when other teams have their rosters set, then he’s back in uniform before Week 1.

Final comment:  There will be some bottom of the roster movement, cuts and re-signings and all.  We know that.  But we also know that there will be some trades, probably minor, but still some trades.  I will say, I love this time of year!

Practice squad:  Etling, Webb, Lucien, Ferentz, Lee, Harris, Valentine, Sam, Lewis and Crossen.

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