As promised at some point in the recent past, let’s have a really, really, really early look at where the New England Patriots could be headed next season. Take a look at the players on the current roster and their status. What I think might happen going into next season. Some thoughts about what should happen. And perhaps some chatter about what we in this space here WANT to happen.
I know, the 2019 NFL season isn’t even over, free agency doesn’t start for about two months and the draft is about three and a half months away. But QB Tom Brady’s future has been speculated upon all season. And there are about 20 other free agents that will need to be accounted for. So it’s fun to think about, even at this early juncture. Well, for me anyway…
But think about it. Arguably the best player of all time could leave this organization. Several other marquee players could jump ship as well. The Pats could have some significant roster turnover next season and be led by a 2nd year quarterback who barely played his first season. Although that storyline sounds eerily familiar, let’s not put Jarrett Stidham in Brady’s class yet, ok? Despite some late season stories by beat writers that said Stidham was making “wow” throws in practice all season. Let’s pump the brakes on all that please.
Seriously, however, not only is Brady a free agent with some significant other players, there could be some additional salary cap casualties involving older, high priced, consistently banged up players.
Also consider the way coach Bill Belichick likes to trade, especially during the draft, when you add it all up, it is going to be a FASCINATING offseason. Even for non-Patriot fans, as they wait to see what happens with Brady, first and foremost. And if it indeed is the end of an era for the organization.
Per usual when we do these things, let’s take a look by position, starting today with the offense:
Under contract: Jarrett Stidham, Cody Kessler
Free Agents: Tom Brady
Comments: The elephant in the room right off the bat. Brady. What happens? Your guess is as good as mine. Brady spent all year kind of whining. His behavior appeared to be about the weapons he was given to work with throughout the year. But you have to believe it was about the money too. How they have made him work for his money with incentives, voidable contracts and all that. And how, after all these years, they just wouldn’t give him a three year contract to play until his goal of 45 years old. Not for top dollar, mind you. But I am sure for decent money. Maybe his attitude had to do with that he is sick of coach Bill Belichick and his methods. And even offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, as rumors had it later in the year.
Any way you slice it, Brady’s demeanor was different this year. And it has led many to believe he will be gone as soon as he gets a chance. For the first time in his career, he is a free agent. So he will have that chance.
Recent rumors have indicated that he may have softened his stance however. That he really doesn’t want to “start over” in a new city, system, etc. If he felt that way it would be unsurprising. But it also would be quite a sudden turn of events from what he portrayed all season.
That all being said, how much is any team across the league going to pay a 43 year old quarterback, despite being arguably the best player of ALL-TIME? Sure, some bottom feeder could open the coffers to get Brady in and draw fans in. Would Brady do something like that? Hard to believe. He has always been about winning and not the highest bidder. And what would it feel like to him to just be an attraction?
Does Bill even want him back? I am not so sure that is the case. Not that Stidham is ready. Or is even the long term answer. But Bill may be ready to move on. Especially if Brady doesn’t go to the offseason stuff like he used to and work with the young/new receivers to help ensure a more seamless transition into the real games? But also…BECAUSE HE IS 43 YEARS OLD! People seem to think this guy can go on forever. There is simply no data for QBs to be successful at his age. Not to mention the fact that Bill usually gets rid of guys “a year too early rather than a year too late”. And everyone already assumes he had wanted to move on from Brady when Jimmy Garoppolo was ready to go.
Brady is not done. He has declined, despite what a lot of people think. But he is far from done. But could he be next year? Sure can. If I was Bill, I wouldn’t hand him a 3 year contract either. Doesn’t matter who he is. If he would come back on a one year deal, would he be better than Stidham or a veteran stopgap such as Andy Dalton? Damn right. But Brady may not want to do that.
All of the above would probably be moot if owner Robert Kraft stepped in. Don’t rule that out either.
No one knows what is going to happen. I don’t know the right answer as to what should happen. I am not sure what I even WANT to happen. I could go either way. Let Brady walk, root for him on another team, see if he can win, see if Bill can win with the replacement QB in New England, etc. Or bring him back for at least one more year (if he will do it), surround him with better talent and make one more run at it. After all, the last time Brady had this kind of crew at receiver, Randy Moss and Wes Welker came walking through that door the following year.
One thing is for sure: I can’t wait for this to play out. I am sure everyone else is in the same boat.
Next: The remainder of the offense and specialists.
…trying to find the right words to write while also wondering why Jason Garrett still has a job several days after the end of the NFL season…guess that is not something I need to worry about. But still curious…anyway…bottom line is that Jerry Jones is probably weaseling out of the whole thing and letting Garrett’s contract expire on the 14th I think. Maybe force the new coach after that to add Garrett to his staff. But otherwise keep him “in the building”, without actually firing him as head coach.
Just find the whole thing in Dallas comical. As opposed to Miami coach (and long time Patriot assistant) Brian Flores firing his offensive coordinator (and long time Patriot assistant) Chad O’Shea the day after the season ended…and after only one year…and after Flores brought O’Shea to Miami…and considering those guys were supposedly tight. I find that story interesting, but nothing more.
What is NOT comical is the New England Patriots’ loss to the Miami Dolphins last Sunday. I think all Patriot fans feel the same way.
Even though it has likely been a lot of substitutes for the main hosts on the local sports radio stations this week, we have not been able to bring ourselves to listen to the noise. Because we fear the noise is accurate. And I will make my own noise here. Don’t you worry.
But even the subs have probably been saying the same things on the radio (and TV and newspapers and the internet and etc. of course) this week. Stuff like:
*If they can’t beat Miami with a bye on the line, how do you think they will do in the actual playoffs?
*So much for that vaunted defense. Letting the immortal Ryan Fitzpatrick march the offense downfield to win the game in the end.
*By the same token, so much for that Defensive Player of the Year award for Stephon Gilmore this season after being torched by Devante Parker all day.
*Tom Brady sure looked terrible today, eh? Is he hiding an injury?
*Why did they give up ANYTHING for Mohamed Sanu? He is brutal!
*Boy, Julian Edelman really needs some time off. Could’ve used that bye!
*Brady is gone. Josh McDaniels is gone. Devin McCourty is gone. Kyle Van Noy is gone. Joe Thuney is gone. Jamie Collins is gone. (Insert other free agent player or coach here).
*Feels like the 2009 team all over again, right?!
And so on…
I can’t argue with ANY of that. This space loved the 8-0 start. But we weren’t completely sold on the team since they were playing teams that were barely better than some local colleges. Well, maybe not local colleges, as Boston College still stinks. But you get the point.
And yeah, the Dolphins sure turned things around from that 43-0 blasting by the Pats in Week Two, eh?
The FEEL of things out there regarding the team just doesn’t seem right. And that is without getting into Brady’s future with the organization (or football as a whole). We may get to that someday. That topic has already been covered ad nauseam locally. I’m not sure I have completely formed my opinion on that as of yet. It feels like he is gone, to retirement or another team. But this postseason could prepare a different script. We can chat more about that later.
But back to the “feel”, meaning…the offense…and Brady himself… has never seemed right. The offensive line has been bad, helping contribute to running back Sony Michel not running for many yards. Though Michel has looked slow and indecisive in his own right. Brady’s attitude and demeanor in interviews. McDaniels’ play calling. Does Brady ever trust the kid wide receivers? Or do they just stink? The defense not looking so great against good teams. Why did they opt for Sanu over Emmanuel Sanders, who is playing well in San Fran? The Antonio Brown fiasco. The Gronk “will he or won’t he garbage”. Edelman being banged up. Is Brady too? Giving Michael Bennett away instead of say, ditching Deatrich Wise Jr., who plays very little, but always seems to have a key penalty every game. The Josh Gordon Experience. Blah, blah, blah.
In any event, based on the history of this organization, it would not shock me at all to see them make another Super Bowl run. Far-fetched, especially since they needlessly forced themselves to play an extra game? Sure. But the Pats have looked bad before. And turned it around when no one thought they could. See: Last season.
Is a Super Bowl run likely? Doubt it. There are just too many strong teams out there. Baltimore and Kansas City in the AFC. (Side note: I am not sure how everyone is handing the conference to the Ravens. And have been for quite some time. We know what the Chiefs can do, right?). San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans, even Seattle in the NFC (though those teams do have flaws that can be exposed, especially with two weeks of preparation time). The overall competition just seems a little stiffer all around.
It’s just hard for me to rule anything out with these Patriots. Despite what we all feel. Yup, that the dynasty may indeed be over.
As for this weekends’ slate:
Buffalo at Houston (-2.5)
I love some of the latest chatter I’ve heard: The Bills are going to go into Houston and win. Then shock the Ravens in Baltimore. Then when New England beats Tennessee at home and upsets the Chiefs in KC (well, they did that last year!), the Pats will be hosting the Bills in Foxborough for the AFC Championship game!!!!! And guess what? THEN the Bills will all of a sudden suck and it will be an easy win for the Pats to cruise into the Super Bowl!! Please. The Bills are a nice story. I said it last week, Sean McDermott seems like a good coach and has the team headed in the right direction. QB Josh Allen has his moments. The Texans do have some trouble in the playoffs historically. Resting some key guys last week will help them. Maybe the return of J.J. Watt will as well. The Bills ride ends here. Sorry wishful thinkers.
Houston 27, Buffalo 17.
Tennessee at New England (-5.5)
You know who else’s ride ends here? You’ll have to wait a second. As well as the Patriots defense has played at times this year, they have had some problems stopping the run. Titans RB Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing yardage. Also would not be surprised if the Titans resurrected old friend Dion Lewis from the depths of their bench. The Pats D historically don’t do well against QB’s who can run, or at least move around a little. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill can at least do the latter. And upped his game for sure once he took over the Titans job. It’s unlikely Bill Belichick will stack eight men in the box against the running game since the Titans all of a sudden have a receiver tearing it up in A.J. Brown. The Titans can give up some points, but the Pats have trouble scoring them. Not a lot of confidence from this usual homer. And therefore you get this:
Tennessee 27, New England 20.
Minnesota at New Orleans (-7.5)
Verizon FIOS is trying to make me feel bad. They have removed the FOX channel from our cable offerings because apparently, FOX is trying to squeeze more money out of Verizon. How’s that feel Verizon? Look in the f’ng mirror. Like you haven’t been screwing John Q. Public for years with your plans? This message is on a loop on the channel now: “This station is asking for a 70% increase in order to carry them. That’s like the price of gas going from $2.99 to over $5.00 a gallon overnight”. Comparing a huge corporation with Joe Average Person? Please. Enough with that nonsense already. I digress, but I mention it because I will have to find an alternative way to watch this game. Plus, I think it is as funny as sh&t that VZ is trying to do this. Plus, I don’t really have much of anything to say about the actual game. Looks like Dalvin Cook is ready to roll for the Vikes. But how healthy is Adam Thielen? Kirk Cousins had a nice run for a while, but I can’t say I’ve ever bought in. The Saints should handle this one at home fairly easily I imagine. Maybe I won’t even have to watch.
New Orleans 34, Minnesota 24.
Seattle (-1.5) at Philadelphia
The Seahawks lost 3 of 4 down the stretch and have emergency guys playing running back. Yet, they were an inch (and a horrific delay of game penalty previously?) away from not even being in this game. Maybe they should have fans call in goal line plays instead of whoever is coaching. Might end up with better results than last week and…well, you know the other major time. Philly won their last four, but 2 against the Giants and one each against Dallas and Washington. I’m not sold. Miles Sanders is supposedly giving it a go, but will Zach Ertz be able to? The Iggles are banged up all around. I just don’t see how they can win one against a good team here. Being home and having the ‘Hawks go cross country should help. But Seattle was surprisingly 7-1 on the road this season. Even if Sanders, Ertz and their slew of injured players can suit up, it seems like a tall task.
Seattle 31, Philadelphia 23.
Week (against the spread): 9-7
Week (straight up): 9-7
Lock Of The Week (season, ATS): 10-7
Season (against the spread): 130-126
Season (straight up): 164-92
…and is it not the New England Patriots’ year either?
But…let’s hold off a second on that.
I mean, who cares about my picks? I hope no one is actually placing real bets based on them. Even in my “good” years, I think with the vig, the Blowhard would still have lost money in the end. “I think” because I know nothing about gambling. That’s why we don’t do it in real life.
Then again, if we were placing real bets, we wouldn’t force ourselves to pick all 16 games each week.
So there’s that…but I digress. Let’s just say if one was to take gambling advice from these columns, we hope that the best games are cherrypicked and therefore money has been made.
As far as it not being the Pats’ year though, this year is starting to feel a little like 2015. They started 10-0, everyone was handing them the Super Bowl trophy and then they finished 12-4 and eventually lost in the AFC Championship.
Remember Nate Ebners’ mortar kick against the Eagles and a whole lot of Stephen Jackson in the finale against the Dolphins?
Ugh, sorry I had to remind you.
This season has that sort of a feel, no?
BUT…the reason I say “let’s hold off a second on that” is because of last year. Do we already forget?
The Pats had dropped to 9-5 after an ugly loss to the Steelers in mid-December, which of course followed the “Miami Miracle” (no need to revisit those specifics, I am sure).
Then they went on to win the Super Bowl, which included a visit to Arrowhead Stadium, and a victory over a seemingly unbeatable Kansas City Chiefs team.
Who saw that coming? No one.
Can that happen again? Sure can, as invincible as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens look thus far this season. And I’m not ruling out the Chiefs this season either.
I’m not counting on it. But it can happen.
Listen, the Houston loss was probably a long time coming. First time the Texans beat the Pats in a decade. Many Patriot players had the flu, blah, blah, blah. May have just been the Texans time.
And I’m not excited about how the team defended Deshaun Watson. The Pats have always had problems with running quarterbacks and this season is no different.
Even though the offense is, of course, having serious problems, I feel like they can still turn it around. No idea why. But I still feel it.
Julian Edelman is still Julian Edelman. James White resurfaced against the Texans, though a lot of garbage yards, I admit. Mohamed Sanu should get healthier and play more. Jakobi Meyers seems to be gaining more of Tom Brady’s trust…even if he still makes a ton of mistakes. Maybe they can get a little something from Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse as well.
Not sure why Rex Burkhead played so little. And N’Keal Harry seems to be a lost cause…though that may be a little unfair. But a redshirt year shouldn’t be out of the question at this point.
Sony Michel has looked better. And that brings me to…why did they go away from him early?
I thought coaching and play calling left a lot to be desired in this game. A lot of head-scratchers by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Sure, the receivers still had some issues. Tom Brady missed some open guys. The defense wasn’t as stout. But Brady had more time to throw in this game than I can remember. Since sometime last season probably. And that was done partly with journeyman James Ferentz taking over for Ted Karras at center after Karras’ injury.
Because of this, I feel like maybe they can finally figure it out still. 4 games to go, starting with a tough one against the aforementioned Chiefs. There is time.
“Because of this”? Yes. Because I feel like the crux of the problem has been with the offensive line all season. And if they start giving Brady time to throw, I am feeling that all bets are off.
But maybe I’m just an idiot.
Dallas (-2.5) at Chicago
Two mediocre, underachieving, 6-6 teams that I don’t really feel like talking about much. We know what I think is not really going to matter anyway. But I think the Cowboys have more talent. We will see if that actually means anything this Thursday night.
Dallas 27, Chicago 20.
Week (against the spread): 7-9
Week (straight up): 9-7
Lock Of The Week (season, ATS): 6-7
Season (against the spread): 94-98
Season (straight up): 123-69