Celtics Breakup Party, Part 3

Moving on…not much more left to cover I don’t think.  Well, as I said, there is one big one left:

*And it’s Tyler Zeller!!  Ok, no it’s not.  But he’s the 2nd to last one on the current roster to go over.  8 million dollar non-guaranteed contract for next year.  To no one’s surprise, I’d rather spend that money on someone else.  Like…someone a lot better perhaps.  There’s really not much more to say.

*Isaiah Thomas.  Of course.  IT.  What do we do with Isaiah?

I can tell you I have gone back and forth on this one all year…and longer actually.  I know, he averaged almost 30 points a game this season, so how can there be any debate?

Well, when thinking about it during the regular season, the fact remained that IT hadn’t done much in the playoffs.  Yes, I also know that he hasn’t always had a lot of help.  But it was a concern.  Another concern was that at his size, how will he hold up over the years?  Legitimate question, especially if we are talking about giving him max dollars…or close to it.  And his negative value on defense.  Ultimately, is he the kind of player you really want to build around?

Lots of question marks.  I feel like he played better this playoff season.  Of course the Celtics played more games, but I felt better about his overall performance.  Especially considering the circumstances surrounding him with the death of his sister at the beginning of the playoffs.  And sure, he struggled some on the court.  But let’s face it, you are going to face better competition in the playoffs, so things are going to be tougher to come by.

Then…the hip.  Was this the reason he struggled in some games?  Who knows?  He supposedly had the injury for several weeks.  But then it got to a point where he couldn’t go anymore.  I don’t know Isaiah personally of course.  But I have to believe that if he was sitting playoff games out, it was pretty serious.  I’ve heard some question that and I don’t buy that argument.  I believe that if he could have played, he would have.

But the injury adds another layer to it all.  We still don’t know how serious the injury is.  Early indications were that if he had to have surgery, he’d be out 6-9 months or something like that.  But we don’t know if he needs the surgery yet.  So…another lingering concern.

Add it all up and what to do with Isaiah is a little tricky.  But I’ve made my decision.

I’m keeping him and giving him some dough.

Maybe that’s me just getting caught up in his regular season performance this year.  Loving how he keeps proving people wrong.  I don’t know.  But I do know he has been successful here.  He has one year left on his current contract at about six and a quarter million…another bargain year.  Sure, he will have to get his money after next season.  But the C’s will be able to give him more, based on his Bird rights or some sort of cap mumbo jumbo that no one really completely understands.  This will also give the Celtics more room to sign other guys too.  So giving IT max or close to max money won’t kill them.  From what I hear anyway.

I’ve discussed offering IT in trades before.  I wouldn’t totally rule that out either.  But the hip injury dampens his value a bit.  Plus, he fits this system and may have more value to the local team than any others.  Brad Stevens has been able to maneuver things where he can “hide” Isaiah on defense.  Maybe not always, but seemingly a lot.  Danny Ainge has always loved him and he usually hangs onto guys like that.

I think he stays, gets huge money after next season, but the team continues to build around him and he becomes just a piece and not necessarily the main guy.  Just one of the main guys.  Hope he will be ok with that…and I think he will be.

That does it for the end of season roster.  But we are not done.  Some more players/points to talk about:

*Geurschon Yabusele/Ante Zizic.  2016 first round draft picks.  These two will be here next year.  Not sure how much they play though.  Both averaged about 100 points a game overseas I believe.  But against Chinese and Turkish competition, I also believe.  Noted powerhouses they are not.  Zizic HAS to be better than Zeller and has some size, so hopefully he can add something.  I don’t really have much more to say really…

*Abdel Nader.  2016 2nd round pick.  He will be here I bet too…because they got him to stick around last year up in Maine instead of going elsewhere.  Likely made him a promise for 2017-18, since the 2016-17 team had a roster crunch.  But again, he has to be end of bench material.  I guess he played well for Maine, but that is the WNBA…er, I mean the NBA Development League.  I think James Young put up 40 every time they sent him there.  So I am not expecting much.

*The “other”Marcus Thornton/Ben Pepper.  2nd round picks, Thornton from 2015 and Pepper from 1997.  Ok, they won’t be here.  But the team still holds their rights.  That has to count for something.

*Lonzo Ball.  Please God, nnnnooooooo…

*Markelle Fultz.  I think the C’s keep the #1 pick and take Fultz.  Since I know nothing about college hoops, my analysis may really end here.  Fultz seems to be the consensus #1.  Maybe some other guys are good too, but it looks like Fultz is the guy.

And if he is, he needs to be the 3rd guard (presumably behind IT and Marcus Smart, with Terry Rozier the 4th guy, if he remains here…and Avery Bradley traded…as I see it anyway).  Fultz needs to play.  But not start…yet.  He definitely needs to come in and play meaningful minutes though.

*2018 Brooklyn first round pick.  Giddyup!!

*Three 2017 second round picks.  Yaaaaawn.

*Gordon Hayward.  And there’s this offseason’s Al Horford.  Maybe he likes Utah and will stay there.  I just don’t see it.  Sure, a lot of people are talking about this because of the Brad Stevens/Butler connection.  But I also hear that Boston can offer Hayward more money over the long haul.  I have no idea if this is true, but if so, that has to mean something too.  Boston over Utah, just in general?  Has to be a no brainer.  Ok, maybe another team makes a run at him too.  But it just feels like a done deal.  I’m probably wrong.

Is Hayward a top 10 player in the league?  Maybe not.  A pretty good player nonetheless.  And many believe he will actually come here.  No small feat when you consider the Celtics have problems attracting marquee free agents in their history, despite being the most decorated NBA franchise.  Then put him with IT, Horford, Fultz, Smart, Jaylen Brown, etc. and you may start to have something.

*Paul George.  Seems hell-bent on eventually landing in Lakerland.  At least that is the popular opinion.  I’m not sure I would trade for him if that is the case.

*Jimmy Butler.  Whatever.  Good player.  I just think the other options available to the Celtics are preferable.

*Big man X.  I don’t know who this is.  Hopefully someone who can bang around in the paint.  I know Brad likes his big guys to heave up threes and all.  But they should have a better presence inside somewhat next year.  I think anyway.  Ideally, they can dangle Bradley and/or Jae Crowder.  We’ll see.

Ok, so where does that leave us?  What it may look like:

Center:  Big Man X, Zizic

Power forward:  Horford, Yabusele, Jerebko

Small forward:  Hayward, Brown, Nader

“Shooting” guard:  Smart, Fultz

Point guard:  Isaiah, Rozier, Jackson

A cheap veteran and/or 2nd round picks fill out the roster.  Bradley is your trade chip, tough to keep Crowder if Hayward is here and Brown needs minutes, Jerebko could be cheap and Brad loves him, Kelly Olynyk is still an option, but he may get some dough…or get squeezed by the team needing his money for other guys.  Moving pieces here and I’m certainly not looking to give Crowder and Bradley away.  Hell, they could still end up being here under their reasonable contracts.  They probably will, to be quite honest.

Championship team?  Nope, but one with some promise.  Especially if “Big Man X” is a player.

BUT if Anthony Davis is available and can be had…well…I may have to rewrite these three posts in their entirety…

 

On To Round Two…

…so I made a prediction for the Boston Celtics first round series against the Chicago Bulls.  I had the Celtics initially beating the Bulls 4 games to 2.  Then I changed it because of Isaiah Thomas’ sisters untimely passing.  Made it 4-3 C’s.  Should have kept it at C’s in 6.  Have I not learned from going against my first inclination…in most situations?  Guess not.  Oh well…

The Celtics woke up from dropping the first two at home, Game 2 being especially frustrating and actually, embarrassing.  It helped that Rajon Rondo got hurt and did not play in the Bulls 4 defeats.  I knew Rondo would step up his game for the Celtics and the playoffs in general.  I was surprised to see what kind of difference he seemed to actually be making on the floor.  Especially after his uneven year.  I suppose you can never predict which version of Rondo he will bring to the floor.  But it was a big loss for the Bulls.

Apparently, Jimmy Butler was going through some physical issues as well, despite being on the floor as much as he usually is.  Every player most assuredly has something going on physically at this time of year.  But when Rondo plays awesome and you lose him…and your best player in Butler is fighting something also…those are big detriments.  Of course that goes without saying.

The Celtics definitely played better starting in Game 3.  But they were helped by the situations noted above, no question.  Food for thought heading into the second round matchup with the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards?  I’m not sure how much I can tell ya.  Similar to the Bulls, I can’t say I have watched a ton of Wizard basketball, if any.  I look and see that Washington and Boston split their season series 2-2.  The Celtics won both games at home by single digits, while they got walloped both times in the nation’s capital.  I can also tell you there has been some bad blood this year between the teams…for only God knows why.  I remember Jae Crowder getting worked up over something and putting his finger on John Wall’s nose after one game.  But per usual with basketball “fights”, I didn’t pay much attention to it.  The NBA has a bunch of fraudulent tough guys that talk a lot of smack, then when it gets physical, flail around like they’ve never thrown a fist ever…or run away still yapping and flexing their muscles and all that.  Not worth my time…

Anyway, as for the matchups, Avery Bradley will presumably guard Bradley Beal.  AB gives up 3 inches to Beal, but maybe the “disrespect” Bradley felt in Round 1 will continue to spur him on.  Marcus Smart gives up only an inch, so he should help here too.

But I don’t know how Isaiah is going to guard John Wall.  (Well, maybe this “defensive” matchup will be a wash, with Wall having to cover IT).  And I don’t know who is going to keep Marcin Gortat off the glass.  Maybe even Markieff Morris, for that matter.  Rebounding is still an issue for the Celts, and will be until/if they decide to fix that in the offseason.  Otto Porter killed them in their first matchup, but I’m going to worry about the other 4 starters over him.  Maybe that’s a mistake.  Especially if Brad Stevens leaves Gerald Green in the starting lineup.  Green would then likely guard Porter (Jae Crowder on Morris, Al Horford on Gortat).  Not necessarily ideal for Green to be guarding…anyone.

I will give Stevens credit however.  He made the change going to Green against Chicago, instead of Amir Johnson.  I’ve been saying for quite some time now that I have no idea what Johnson brings to the table.  Supposed to be a power forward but averages about four and a half rebounds a game.  At least Green can score.  But is this the right strategy for the next round?  No idea.

I know that spot with Green will be rotated around with several players…primarily Smart I would say.  So it’s not like Gerald will be playing 30 minutes.  Unless he is on fire of course.  Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko will be the other main “contributors” off the bench.  But that’s ok, the Wizards bench doesn’t appear that strong…to me, anyway.  But I already told you I haven’t watched them a lot, so what do I know?

Mid-season acquisition Bojan Bogdanovic seems to be the main guy to contend with off the Wizards’ bench.  Who else, Jason Smith, Kelly Oubre?  Nah.  Maybe if they let Brandon Jennings gun it up like he did early in his career, he can make a difference.  But he shot 27% in 23 games with Washington this year after he was acquired.  His shooting percentages have always been putrid, but this certainly takes the cake.  Though he is shooting 55% in the playoffs…so again, what do I know?

That’s about all I have for analysis.  And it’s not necessarily deep analysis anyway.  But I had to say something.  Sssssoooo…the result?

Washington in 6.  It was nice that the C’s finally got over the hump and won a playoff round under Brad Stevens.  Progress is still happening, slowly, but I believe surely.  I just don’t see how they stop Wall and Beal for a whole series.  Or keep Gortat from making a big difference on the boards every game as well.  The Celtics will play hard.  Isaiah will get his.  But I think this is where it ends…

 

 

Back From The Dead?

Talking about both Boston winter sports teams…Celtics and Bruins.  The simple answer to the question?  Not quite.  But wins on Friday night for both gives them both some hope.  For one of the squads more than the other, but we will get to that.

If I had written this piece before Friday night, I would have entitled it “Life Support?”.  Because it had seemed at that point that the playoffs were over for both teams before they had even really begun.  Prospects were indeed bleak.  One win apiece doesn’t necessarily change that.  But things may be looking up.

The Bruins had the most exciting win of the two.  Took them until double overtime to get it done.  And won by someone who most people had never heard of…Sean Kuraly.  8 regular season games for the B’s with one assist.  2 playoff games with no points.  Averaged less than 10 minutes a game in those 10 contests.  Then in Game 5, back in for a benched Ryan Spooner, over 28 minutes played and 2 goals?  What?!

Of course the B’s should have won in the first overtime, but let’s not even go there.

This series with Ottawa has been a dogfight, no question.  The Senators have outscored the B’s 12-11.  3 OT games out of 5.  A bounce here or there and the B’s could be in the lead actually.

Do I think the win Friday will spur the Bruins to victory in the series?  No, I don’t.  I’m thinking they will actually lose Game 6 Sunday (of course making my Ottawa 4-2 series win prediction come true!).

Why?

I just don’t think the B’s have the horses.  For as much as the Game 5 win will pump their spirits and probably do wonders for them mentally, the physical aspect cannot be ignored.  How much do they have left in the tank?  About 39 hours after the finish of Game 5, they will lace them up for Game 6.  David Krejci, who wasn’t healthy in the first place, left last game early with another injury.  Hard to believe he will suit up for the next one.  Brandon Carlo, Torey Krug and Adam McQuaid presumably are still out.

The defense is the real key here.  It’s amazing they have only allowed 12 goals in the series with some of the characters on the blue line.  Tommy Cross had to play in one game!  Yeah, Ottawa is no offensive juggernaut for sure.  And Tuukka Rask has had his “7 million dollar goalie” moments.  He has not played as well as people will lead you to believe…and admittedly part of that has been because of the rotating defensmen around him.  But he was absolutely fantastic for at least the second half of Game 5 though, no question.

Back to the defense though, Zdeno Chara played over 36 minutes Friday and is averaging almost 30 for the series.  40 years old and still a good player.  But…that’s some serious mileage so far.  Charlie McAvoy?  He may have plenty of juice for Game 6, but can we guarantee he keeps playing the way he has been?  Perhaps the intensity in the NHL playoffs will wear him down a bit?  And Joe Morrow played almost 30 minutes Friday.  Joe Morrow?  Seems he played pretty well, but can we count on that going forward?

For the Bruins, great win in Game 5.  But I see that as the last hurrah.  Unless Brad Marchand finally decides to show up…

On to the Celtics…

Now this one is a different story.  Game 1 disappointment, Game 2 atrocity.  Then a Game 3 rebound on the road.  Though a blown 20 point lead early doesn’t help matters.  Even if they still won by 17.

I don’t love the Celtics’ chances overall for the entire playoffs.  But I do think they come back and win this series.  And no, not just cuz Rajon Rondo is likely done for the series.  Rondo has (had) clearly stepped up his game for this series.  And I didn’t think “National TV Rondo” would show up for the series.  So I was wrong.  Wasn’t the first time and won’t be the last.

The Celtics, despite their flaws, and despite the personal situation Isaiah Thomas is still going through, are simply a better overall team than the Bulls.

Jimmy Butler will get his.  Dwayne Wade will do enough.  Robin Lopez, unfortunately, will probably still do OK against any of the Celtics’ “bigs”.  But can the rest of the Bobby Portis’, Jerian Grant’s and Paul Zipser’s keep doing what they are doing?  Maybe.  But I’m not counting on it.

This Celtic team is not a championship team by any means.  Many moves still have to be made to keep on that path.  We’ve been through all this before.  But they are too good to drop a first round series to a team that barely made the playoffs.  I would have even said that if there was still a healthy Rondo to deal with.

Now that it is 2-1, the series becomes more manageable, even if Game 4 is in Chicago.

I can’t say that I thought inserting Gerald Green into the starting lineup in Game 3 was the perfect answer.  But it didn’t hurt.  Brad Stevens will have to continue to mix and match to find solutions.  And despite his putrid career playoff record, I somehow have faith that he will.  For this round anyway.

I see a C’s win in Game 4, but still a 6-7 game series, probably 7.  It won’t be easy.  But at least winning Game 3 gave them a shot to get back in this thing.  And sure, their 3-point shooting in Game 3 was off the charts.  I hate all the threes, but that’s their game.  I expect more of the same going forward.

In any event, it makes for a good day of Sunday viewing.  Along with the Boston Red Sox trying to actually win a game in Baltimore.  But that’s a story for a different day…