Not a banner Wild Card week, though I will say if Seattle fails on their last two-point conversion, then the Blowhard picks that score exactly…and covers. Although if Sebastian Janikowski is available, they probably kick the point there…though we still cover.
I know, who cares?
In any event, seems like we have a pretty good slate coming up this weekend. Looking at the point spreads, however, it appears that Vegas doesn’t seem to think so. And we know Vegas has a pretty good idea on what they are doing.
Another interesting note: When is the last time the New England Patriots had the lowest spread among the teams participating in a playoff weekend? Is this accurate? Perhaps. But again…that’s why they play the games.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-5.5)
There are a lot of people out there that think the Colts are going to win this game. All of a sudden Indy is the “best team in the AFC”? Huh?! The Colts are on a nice run, no question. But let’s not get carried away, please. I’ll point back to their schedule and mention once again that it wasn’t exactly a Murderer’s Row they played down the stretch. Sorry to beat a dead horse here. Not to mention the fact that they should have walloped the Texans last week. Yeah, I guess they kind of did beat them pretty good. But they probably should have won more like 42-7 instead of the 21-7 they did win by in the end…especially the way they started.
The Chiefs went 3-3 down the stretch, coach Andy Reid’s postseason struggles are well-documented, their defense stinks and will yet again be without Eric Berry, not to mention Kareem Hunt thankfully ain’t walking through that door. But KC is at home and had a week off. Indy has that stud Darius Leonard on defense, but how good really is that D? They shut down Houston? Yippee!! I’m not buying into the hype. Though of course, I will be rooting for Indy, cuz if the Colts and Patriots win, the AFC Championship will once again go through Foxborough. Just not seeing it though.
Kansas City 38, Indianapolis 27.
Dallas at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Like the Chiefs, the Rams sputtered a bit at the end, going 2-2 to end the season. And like the Colts, we feel like the Cowboys are getting waaaaaaay too much love out there. Kind of feel the same way about this game as I do Chiefs/Colts. This version of the Rams doesn’t necessarily have any kind of (good) playoff track record. But they’ve had a week off, are at home and probably are in a better situation health-wise…especially with Todd Gurley supposedly ready to go full speed. Looks like most of the injured Cowboys will suit up, but we will see how much some of them can give. A big game from Ezekiel Elliott would keep the potent Rams offense off the field and go a long way to giving the ‘Boys a chance. Not out of the question. But that being said, the Rams can score quickly…and often, so a big game from Zeke may not really matter. That’s pretty much the way I’m leaning.
Los Angeles Rams 31, Dallas 20.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England (-4.5)
Tough road for the Chargers this postseason. Finishing tied for the best record in the AFC, but losing the AFC West division tiebreaker to the Chiefs, dropping them to the #5 seed. Then they have to travel cross country to Baltimore in Round 1. Then once again traveling cross country to New England for Round 2. LA won in the Wild Card round, can they win in the Divisional Round? Absolutely! Are we picking them? You’ll see.
The Chargers took a 23-3 lead last week in Baltimore with about 9 minutes left in the game when they then inexplicably let the Ravens back in the game. To the point where Baltimore had the ball close to midfield with less than a minute left. With at least a little bit of a chance to go ahead as the clock approached zero. The Ravens ran for less than 100 yards in the game after going the last half of the season seemingly averaging double that. Lamar Jackson was HISTORICALLY BAD. Seemed like a good opportunity for John Harbaugh to (reluctantly) go back to playoff-tested Joe Flacco and he declined. Sure, the Chargers got conservative. But this was a second AFC Wild Card game that should have never been in doubt after the way it started.
We’ve been through it all year, that the Patriots are not the juggernaut this year that they have been for years. But take the repeated cross country travel above. The Patriots being at home, and being undefeated this year. (Yes, I know the Chargers are 8-1 on the road. Impressive, no doubt. But this is Gillette, in January, in the playoffs. Different animal). Weather? Perhaps. A warm weather team coming into the cold. Could have some effect.
Ultimately, I believe it will be a close game. LA sacked a mobile Lamar Jackson seven times last week. So how many times can they get an immobile Tom Brady? Yeah, Brady will be more prepared than Lamar to combat that pass rush so he won’t get sacked nearly as much. BUT, he sure as hell will probably be pressured just as much. If Julian Edelman doesn’t have butterfingers, perhaps the real Gronk shows up and maybe someone like Phillip Dorsett has a career game so the Pats can put some points on the board and make that pressure irrelevant. More than likely though, the Patriots try to run the ball…and maybe even too much. I suppose that would cut down on the sacks anyway.
Here’s what I’m thinking…it wouldn’t be surprising if it came down to the Chargers kicker, Michael Badgley. It’s been no secret that LA has had their share of issues with their kicking game in recent years. They think Badgley has been a pretty good solution. He’s been good. But remember that Sunday Night game against the Steelers about a month ago? Didn’t he miss a 39 yarder with no time left? Then a Steelers penalty gave him another chance. Then a missed 34 yarder followed. Then…another Steeler penalty. He did hit the 29 yarder to win it…but that’s quite a route.
What is he going to do if it comes down to a kick like that? In Gillette? In the playoffs?
My guess? Two words: Billy Cundiff.
New England 23, Los Angeles Chargers 21.
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-8.5)
I’m extremely hesitant to pick against Nick Foles these days. Isn’t everyone? Yeah, yeah, yeah, if Cody Parkey could hit a kick, we wouldn’t even be talking about Foles this week. But he’s here and we need to talk about it. Even though Foles threw a couple of bad picks last week, he also brought them down for the go-ahead score with less than a minute left in regulation.
So does this “Saint Nick” magic mean that the Eagles have a chance this week in New Orleans? Well, sure. But even though the Eagles have won 6 of their last 7 and seem to be on a similar run like last year which led to a Super Bowl, I believe this is where it comes to an end. You know what game was right before the 6 of 7 run? A 48-7 loss to these same Saints in the same place where they will play on Sunday. Of course, the Eagles are not the same team now as they were at that point in the year. But New Orleans was 13-3 this season…13-2 if you don’t count the last game of the year in which they mailed things in. In a recurring theme, they are at home and have had a week off. Drew Brees should be a little refreshed. The game won’t be as ugly as the mid-season one. But I suppose there is a chance it could be.
New Orleans 34, Philadelphia 17.
Week (against the spread): 1-3
Week (straight up): 2-2
Season (against the spread): 143-117
Season (straight up): 165-95
Posted on January 11, 2019, in Uncategorized and tagged AFC, Andy Reid, Dallas Cowboys, Divisional Round, gambling, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Lamar Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Michael Badgley, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFC, NFL picks, Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles, point spreads, Super Bowl. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.