Not There Yet…and Week Five Picks…
…Thursday Night Football was once again ugly this week. The New England Patriots did hold off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, 19-14. But it was kind of a sloppy game. A thousand penalties, including several real stupid ones by the Patriots. Jameis Winston missing wide open receivers…actually Tom Brady did too. The Patriots offensive line made the Tampa pass rush look like they still had Warren Sapp in his prime. One sack all year, they had three the other night. But it felt like 20, they way they were hitting Brady. I am not sure how the Bucs officially got only 6 hits credited to the stat sheet. Fumbles. Dropped passes. Dropped interceptions. And lastly, but certainly not least, a virtuoso performance by Tampa kicker Nick Folk. I guess once you’ve played for the Jets, that stink never really goes away. May explain why David Harris has only played a handful of snaps for the Pats this year, despite their linebackers being putrid. But I digress…
If you are a Patriot fan, you should be happy they got the win. Short week, on the road, against what is supposed to be a good team, defense in disarray and all that. I am happy for that. But…if you are a Patriot fan, you cannot say that all the problems from the first 4 games have vanished.
The defense played better, no doubt. But it appears they simplified it a little bit, though I didn’t study any game tape, I must admit. And they almost coughed it up late. Maybe they relaxed a bit at the end, who knows? But they could have very well lost the game on the last drive.
The offensive line…I don’t even know what to say. The same five guys are back from last year. And everyone’s favorite assistant coach, Dante Scarnecchia, is still here. So what happened? I really don’t know. But these guys are going to get Brady killed. And maybe you can lay a little blame on Tom himself for holding on to the ball too long. Or the wide receivers for not getting open. Or on the absence of Julian Edelman, and in this game, Rob Gronkowski, who are Brady’s favorite security blankets. Or on Josh McDaniels and the coaching staff, because they seemingly have run more downfield routes this year…partly due to the absence of Edelman, but also due to the arrival of Brandin Cooks. Or TE Dwayne Allen, who apparently sucks at both blocking and receiving. But you’ve all heard the stat, Brady has been sacked more times in five games already than in the 12 games he played last regular season. Not good.
Plenty of work still to be done. And I do think the Patriots will do it. But it’s going to take some more time. In any event, 3-2 is better than 2-3. With the Jets up next. Beautiful!
Now for the rest of Week Five:
Tennessee (-2.5) at Miami
Miami has scored 25 points in 3 games. Tennessee is probably starting Matt Cassel. I hate to pick the Dolphins again and lose, but I feel like I have no choice here.
Miami 20, Tennessee 13.
San Francisco at Indianapolis (-1.5)
A lot of people have some interest in this game…ummmm…ok, no they don’t. Indy is at home, is favored and has won one game this year. But I’m looking for the winless 49ers to finally break through after a three close losses in a row. Why? I don’t have any idea.
San Francisco 21, Indianapolis 17.
Carolina at Detroit (-3.5)
Maybe I am in the minority, but I really cannot jump on the Lions bandwagon. Jimmy Caldwell, for one. Matthew Stafford for two. Maybe I should…and will…give these guys some credit some day. Just not yet. Ok yes, wait. This week I will. Carolina is coming off a big road win in Foxborough. That means they will probably not show up in Detroit. I may be going against my better judgement here. But I really don’t know about this one.
Detroit 24, Carolina 20.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Buffalo has been better than they should be. Cincinnati has been worse than they should be. Things have a way of evening out over time. Especially when those things concern two mediocre teams.
Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 20.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5)
Speaking of two mediocre teams, or “SHOULD” be mediocre teams. Since that what they should be, though they both remain winless. A tie perhaps? Doubtful. This is another toss of a coin. When in doubt, take the points. But I will say that even though both offenses have also sucked, a shootout here would not shock me.
New York Giants 31, Los Angeles Chargers 28.
Arizona at Philadelphia (-6.5)
Arizona is fairly lucky to be 2-2. They beat both the hapless Colts and 49ers by three in overtime. And got smoked in their other two games against Detroit and Dallas. It’s an every other week thing too. This happens to be the week of the smokeshow.
Philadelphia 34, Arizona 17.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-8.5)
Speaking of smokeshows. Look for Antonio Brown to be targeted early and often. Despite all that talk about how he needs to grow up and stop the tantrums and all that. The bottom line is that Big Ben WILL want to make him happy. So he will get him the ball and shut him up.
Pittsburgh 38, Jacksonville 17.
New York Jets at Cleveland (-1.5)
Yikes! Niners/Colts and Jets/Browns on the same Sunday?? Oh boy.
Cleveland 17, New York Jets 14.
Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
The Rams may well be for real. But the Seahawks are not done.
Seattle 27, Los Angeles Rams 24.
Baltimore at Oakland (-3.5)
The Ravens have been abysmal the last two weeks. But the Raiders are likely starting EJ Manuel. ‘Nuff said.
Baltimore 24, Oakland 17.
Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)
I’m not feeling the Cowboys this year. Still should be a pretty good squad. But 13-3? Nah. Well, they would have to go 11-1 from here, so I suppose that is pretty obvious. The Packers didn’t dominate out of the gates this year either. Even though the game is in Dallas, I’m feeling the Pack here…with of course no real statistical evidence for me to back it up with.
Green Bay 34, Dallas 27.
Kansas City (-1.5) at Houston
Houston isn’t going to put 57 up on the Chiefs this week. But the offense has found some rhythm for sure. KC isn’t going to go undefeated. They had a battle with Washington at home last week and managed to outlast the Redskins. This game kind of looks like where they have a little bump in the road…on the road.
Houston 24, Kansas City 23.
Minnesota (-2.5) at Chicago
Mitchell Trubisky may be better than Mike Glennon. But that’s not saying much. Sure, they’ve had a week and a half to get him ready for this game. Well, to start this game. They’ve had months to get him ready. Anyway, throwing him in on a Monday Night Football game against a divisional opponent with a pretty good defense? Not so sure about that. Whether or not Sam Bradford comes back or if it is Case Keenum again under center for the Vikes.
Minnesota 24, Chicago 10.
Week (against the spread): 1-0
Week (straight up): 1-0
Season (against the spread): 30-34
Season (straight up): 40-24
Posted on October 8, 2017, in Uncategorized and tagged Antonio Brown, Dante Scarnecchia, defense, gambling, Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL picks, offensive line, point spreads, Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady, Week 5, Winless teams. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.